The Leadoff Question
Who should hit first for the Yankees in 2025?
Opening Day is still many days away, even if we’re going by the Japan Series between the Dodgers and Padres. That fact means the Yankees’ roster is far away from being complete. But given what we know and have seen since the end of the World Series, it’s unlikely that they’ll add a big piece or impact player before the season starts. Given that, let’s look at the lay of the land and try to answer a question the team may have going forward: who should bat leadoff in 2025?
Last season presented a similar problem, but Gleyber Torres eventually solved that. With him gone, the Yankees have to find someone else to do the job. Twenty years ago or more, the answer to this question might have been easy. Anthony Volpe is a fast, slap-hitting guy (kind of?) who steals bases, so he would be the leadoff hitter. Luckily, times have changed. Additionally, the Yankees tried that and it didn’t really work. Until he proves otherwise, which wouldn’t be until later in the year anyway, Volpe isn’t a valid option for leadoff hitter.
Who is a valid option, then? I see three viable candidates: Jazz Chisholm, Jr.; Aaron Judge; and Austin Wells. Each player has reasons for and against, so let’s run them down and see if one emerges as a better choice than the others.
I suppose we should lay out what the Yankees need out of a leadoff hitter. First and foremost is on-base ability, preferably through a combination of average and walks. Part of that is seeing a lot of pitches, both to work the pitcher and give the next hitters a look at what the pitcher is working with in that particular game. This may be a touch old school, but leadoff hitters, generally speaking, should probably avoid strikeouts, though that’s easily mitigated by walks and power. Also old school would be an emphasis on speed and base-stealing ability. While not a complete necessity, a little power out of the leadoff spot is nice, too. The three candidates for the leadoff spot check all these boxes in one way or another, though Wells and Judge aren’t going to do anything flashy on the bases (though Judge did have 10 steals last season).
The league average walk rate is just over 8% and Judge and Wells clear that easily. Chisholm fell short of it in his time with the Yankees–7.3–but it was over 8 for the whole season, including his time with the Marlins. Jazz’s walk rate is a bit of a seesaw:
2020: 8.1 (62 PA)
2021: 6.7 (507 PA)
2022: 8.7 (241 PA)
2023: 6.8 (383 PA)
2024: 8.5 (621 PA)
He does, however, make up for it by having solid power (.197 career ISO; 2024 league average was .156) and good base stealing ability; he swiped 40 last year and has a career SB% of about 78%. That number was higher in 2024 (80) and in 2023 (88) and is a little weighed down by relatively poor percentages from 2020-22. This all points to a pretty good case for Jazz to be the leadoff hitter. He walks just enough, has the necessary speed, and adds a little bit of pop. Of course, the flip side is that the walk rate is a little inconsistent and his strikeout rate is a bit of a red flag for a leadoff hitter coming in at 27.6 for his career. However, he did lower that to 24.5 in 2024, a marked improvement. That’s also only about 2% off the league average rate of 22.6, an acceptable mark. As an added plus, Chisholm saw 4.02 pitches per plate appearance in 2024, just above the league average of 3.88.
Austin Wells knows how to take a walk and seems to know what he’s doing at the plate. Those alone make him a good candidate for leadoff hitter and he has just enough pop–.167 ISO–to be dangerous. He will definitely not run like Jazz would, but he’s a more likely on-base threat, which could be more valuable. Like Jazz, though, he saw an above average number of P/PA at 3.95. On the human side of the game, though, it might be a tough ask for the catcher to be the leadoff hitter, just from a wear and tear and preparation standpoint.
There’s not much of a need to make a case for Aaron Judge to be the leadoff hitter. He’s one of the top three hitters in the game and getting him the most plate appearances on the team is so obviously valuable that it’s not really worth expanding on. There are two potential drawbacks. The first is that you could argue Judge’s power would be wasted in the leadoff spot. Given what the bottom of the order will look like, it’s hard to imagine Judge having a lot of runners on base when he comes to the plate after the first inning. On the flip side, though, he will be on base plenty for the 2-5 hitters when they come up to the plate and that could boost their performance since that’s where protection really comes from. The other wrinkle is that Judge might not want to do it. He was game to bat lead off in 2022 when chasing the AL home run record, but was adamant about preferring to hit third in 2023, even though the more optimal lineup would’ve put him second behind a leadoff hitting Juan Soto.
In (somewhat of) a vacuum, I think I would go with Wells as the leadoff hitter. I believe in his approach and think his on-base ability would be slightly more valuable than Jazz’s speed. If, however, Judge wants to hit first, he should hit first. Assuming that doesn’t happen, here is how I would lay out the lineup:
Austin Wells, C
Aaron Judge, RF
Jazz Chisholm, 3B
Giancarlo Stanton, DH
Cody Bellinger, CF/LF
Paul Goldschmdit, 1B
Jasson Dominguez, CF/LF
Anthony Volpe, SS
Whoever the second baseman is going to be
Assuming Jazz will be the leadoff hitter–which I think is the way the Yankees will do it–I’d go with this lineup:
Jazz
Judge
Bellinger
Stanton
Wells
Goldschmidt
Dominguez
Volpe
Second baseman
If Judge were to do it:
Judge
Jazz
Stanton
Wells
Bellinger
Goldschmidt
Dominguez
Volpe
Second baseman
These seem to make sense based on my own internal logic and vibes, but I’m just an unretired blogger, not a Yankee staffer. Though I do have reservations about how this lineup might perform in 2025, seeing all these options laid out, I like what I see more than I thought I would. It’s well-balanced and there’s a lot of “if” in there, but given the state of the American League, this could be a very successful offense.