All's Wells for 2025
How Austin Wells can improve next season
Despite what this list might tell you, Austin Wells is not a breakout candidate for 2025. You can’t be a breakout player if you finished third in AL Rookie of the Year voting and already broke out; June, July, and August 2024 were Wells’ breakout. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t room for improvement.
2024 was an overall success for Wells as evidenced by the ROY finish and his stats: .317 wOBA; 105 wRC+; 13 HR, 3.4 fWAR). Wells also showed an improved approach over his 2023 debut and that's where I see room for growth and even more success going forward.
Wells finished the 2024 season with an 11.4% walk rate, good for the 89th percentile per Statcast. This alone would be encouraging but there are underlying numbers that indicate Wells’ solid approach at the plate. In 2024, he saw a slightly higher number of pitches in the zone than he did in 2023: 49.9 to 48.0. He dropped his in-zone swing rate by over five percent, which may seem negative on its face, but his contact rate on pitches in the zone was virtually the same. This suggests that Wells isn’t going up there looking to swing at anything in the zone. Instead, he seems to be entering the batter’s box with a plan, looking for his pitch in the zone, not just any pitch in the zone. Further evidence comes from other indicators. First is a drop in his first pitch swing percentage: 38.7 to 33.8; again, he’s not just up there hacking at the first good ball he sees. Second, there’s Wells’ experience with pitches labeled as meatballs. Despite seeing fewer of them in 2024 (marginally)--7.3% compared to 8.1%--he swung at a higher percentage of them: 83.2% compared to 79.2% in 2023. Numbers like this tell us that Wells knows what pitches to go after, even if he’s swinging less overall. As a cherry on top, Wells dropped his chase rate from 37.0% to 25.5%. Smart in the zone, not chasing. That’s the good stuff.
The way that process could mean better results is fairly simple. With essentially a full season’s worth of plate appearances and an already good approach, he can pair those things to result in even better contact and an improved batting line. That is a general idea, but there's a more specific one Wells can attack.
Aside from the aforementioned in-zone improvements, Wells also dropped his in-zone whiff rate overall from by about 1% overall. That doesn’t tell the complete story, though, as we can see below:
Wells’ in-zone whiff rate against fastballs jumped. A lot. If he can improve his contact rate against them, we can reasonably assume better results. Last year, when Wells made contact with fastballs, had a .369 wOBA with an xwOBA of .382. Just a small improvement there could go a long way making Wells even better in 2025. Given the way Wells works at the plate and other underlying and surface metrics, this doesn’t seem like too much of a stretch.
Austin Wells has already proved himself a competent Major League player. He did so with his performance at the plate in 2024 as well as behind it, surprising everyone with great defense. If Wells can take the next step after establishing a mature approach as a batter, he can reach all-star status.