On Austin Wells' Falling Walk Rate

During Tuesday night’s broadcast–before the Yankees once again failed to cover themselves in glory in extra innings on the road–Michael Kay pointed something out that I hadn’t yet noticed this season. He said that Austin Wells’ walk rate had dropped this year, from 11.4% in 2024 to 6.4% in 2025 (accurate as of Wednesday morning). This has come with an increase of (just short of) 4% in his strikeout rate from 21% to 24.8%. Altogether, his overall production has taken a bit of a hit. In 2024, he finished with a .315 wOBA and a 105 wRC+, en route to a 3.4 fWAR season, aided, of course, by his surprisingly excellent framing numbers. That framing has continued this year, where he ranks in the 94th percentile per Statcast. The offensive production, though, has taken a dip to a .303 wOBA, good for a 94 wRC+. When combined with the framing numbers, this is more than fine for a catcher. However, the lack of walks is certainly unexpected, especially after last year when he displayed an approach that led me to argue for him as the leadoff hitter for 2025. So what gives?

The first place I thought to look upon seeing this drop in walk rate was Wells’ chase rate. If he’s walking less, surely he must be chasing pitches out of the zone more often. Indeed he is. His 2025 chase rate of 29.4% is up from his 2024 mark of 25.5, just shy of four percent. This has been fueled by a big time increase in chasing offspeed pitches from 30.4% to 41.8%. The explanation here is pretty neat and tidy: a 4% increase in chase and a 5% drop in walk rate. There was something else that caught my eye, though: an increase in first pitch swing percentage.

In 2024, Wells offered at the first pitch 33.8% of the time. So far in 2025, that number has jumped way up to 40%. This also pairs with an overall increase in contact rate of about 5%. Again, there’s a logical thread here. More contact in general and more first pitch swings logically lead to first pitch contact or first pitch strikes, both of which could work to reduce a player’s walk rate. On the bright side, there is a tradeoff happening with Wells regarding the first pitch.

Swinging at the first pitch more may be contributing to a drop in walk rate, but when he’s swinging at those first pitches, he’s making an impact. On first pitch swings, Wells’ wOBA this year is .550. Last year, it was merely .305. This trend is mirrored in his overall numbers in two ways: his wOBA in zone and his season ISO. The latter is at .216, a big jump from last year. When Wells is hitting the ball, he’s doing damage. His in zone wOBA has also jumped up from .321 in 2024 to .345 in 2025.

So far, Wells has leaned more into a power stroke than a patient approach at the plate. That doesn’t mean that the patience is completely gone, though. This low number is certainly an outlier for him, both in terms of his brief Major League career and his past minor league performance. Given that, his walk rate could rebound as we go further into the 2025 season. If not, it might be alright if he continues with the powerful approach he seems to have taken, especially paired with his strong defense. Either wall, I trust all will be well(s) with Austin.