It's Not Over Till It's Over
Trying to change the vibe after a rough few weeks of Spring Training
Folks, the vibes are putrid. Gerrit Cole’s year-killing Tommy John Surgery is the biggest cherry on top of the injury-laden sundae that has been Spring Training for the 2025 Yankees. Whatever depth the team had going into the season has receded like high tied and exposed some weaknesses. Those weaknesses were there already, but a future Hall of Fame, Cy Young winning starting pitcher and a big slugger–the similarly beleaguered Giancarlo Stanton–helped cover that up. Now with the former officially down for the year and the latter’s status in complete doubt, the very notion of “full strength” for the Yankees seems laughable. But in every joke, there’s a little bit of truth, right…?
The little bit of truth is that despite these losses–actualized and impending in Stanton’s case–the American League does not project to be especially strong. Even a diminished Yankee roster can compete in this field overall and on the division level, too. While the Red Sox made some good moves, there are questions in Boston just like there are in New York. Further south, the Orioles stagnated at best and seem to have, once again, failed to take advantage of their window and standing. The Jays and Rays, while not at the fore of our minds, are still projected close to the rest of the division. Indeed, the FanGraphs playoff odds projections, as I write this at around 11 AM on March 12, have all five teams separated by just under five total games. Similarly, Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections have the Yankees at 85 wins and the gap between the AL East winner and trailer as only nine games, the smallest projected gap in the league. While the Yankees have a small margin for error, so do the other four teams in the division.
The other small bit of truth is that there is still talent on the Yankee roster. Max Fried is a good pitcher. Carlos Rodon should and could be a good pitcher. Clarke Schmidt proved that he belongs in a Major League rotation. The bullpen added one of the best closers in the game in Devin Williams and has strong arms otherwise to back him up, including the emergent Luke Weaver. Aaron Judge is still Aaron Judge. Jazz Chisholm, Jr. could do tons of damage in a full season at Yankee Stadium. Austin Wells (leadoff hitter) is a legitimate Major League bat. There certainly is a lot of “if” in the lineup (Anthony Volpe, Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt, the entirety of third base) but there is talent.
It’s difficult to do so right now, but if you squint–and you don’t have to squint too hard–you can see the Yankees still making the playoffs despite the losses they’ve suffered. Replacing Gerrit Cole is damn near impossible, but the circumstances in the American League may be just right enough that the Yankees could be alright in 2025.
Can i sit here as I’m writing this and say these positive things, ten toes down and with my whole chest? No. But feeling hopeless before a real pitch is thrown sucks. So for now, despite looming doubts, I’m choosing to believe.