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Reviewing the Yankees’ 2022 Projections: PECOTA

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As we await the daily updates from the league and union’s collective bargaining sessions, the Yankees made some news this morning. The team will retire Paul O’Neill’s no. 21 on August 21, finally putting an end to its unofficial retirement for two decades. That’s a Sunday afternoon game against the Blue Jays. There’s been some consternation about not issuing O’Neill’s number over the years, so if you want to discuss any of this news in the comments, have at it.

This morning’s news aside, today I’m breaking down Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections for the 2022 season, which were released last week. As rosters currently stand, PECOTA envisions a second place finish for the Yankees, projecting a hair under 94 wins, trailing the Blue Jays by a game. Obviously, signing one Freddie Freeman or Carlos Correa would change things. For now though, allow me to break down some of PECOTA’s individual projections on the Yankees’ current roster.

Game 160: Boone’s bullpen woes delay playoff celebration

With a wild card berth in sight, Aaron Boone and the Yankees’ offense once again made it hard on themselves by managing their way into a 4-3 loss against the Tampa Bay Rays. A ninth inning rally fell short, and their magic number remains at two with two games remaining. To the takeaways:

Game 155: Stanton’s monster grand slam tops Red Sox

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What a freaking game. It took just one swing — Giancarlo Stanton’s mammoth grand slam in the eighth — to wipe out all of the frustrations from earlier in this one. From getting shut down by Nick Pivetta to another failed contact play to another double play, the offense was awfully quiet after yesterday’s outburst. Stanton changed that in a heartbeat and the Yankees won a thriller, 5-3. There’s still one more to play in Boston tomorrow, and here are the Wild Card standings at this very moment:

As such, tomorrow will be the biggest game of the season (yet again). Finish the sweep and go to Toronto atop the Wild Card standings (Boston holds the tiebreaker). Is that too much to ask?

While Stanton is the hero tonight, the pitching staff did another brilliant job. Nestor Cortes did his thing and the bullpen, highlighted by Luis Severino’s second appearance of the year, kept the game within reach. More on Stanton, Severino, and others in the takeaways after the jump.

Game 151: Nestor and offense do just enough

After being outscored 22-4 this weekend against Cleveland to the point that we didn’t even bother recapping the games (just kidding, we were all just busy), the Yankees bounced back with a much needed 4-3 win. Of course a 4-0 lead in the 2nd turned into a 1 run nailbiter for most of the night, but a win’s a win. To the takeaways:

Game 129: All things must pass

It was good while it lasted.

The Yankees 13-game win streak was snapped this afternoon with a 3-2 loss against the Oakland Athletics, their first since the Field of Dreams game on August 12.  The offense was completely shut down by Frankie Montas, a ninth-inning rally fell short, and the Yankees will now have to start a new streak tomorrow in the series finale.  To the takeaways:

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