Tag: Max Kepler

Slowing down the Twins’ historic offense

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Come Friday night, Yankees’ pitchers will have their hands full. Though the Yankees are favorites in this series, Minnesota is no pushover. The Twins’ offense is a force to be reckoned with and garnered the nickname “Bomba Squad”, apropos for the team that just set the single-season home run record (just beating the Yankees by one).

So, this isn’t a Twins club akin to those the Yankees manhandled in the playoffs a decade ago. The Yankees’ pitching staff will have to navigate a lineup that did this in the regular season:

  • Runs scored: 939 (2nd to Yankees)
  • Home runs: 307 (1st)
  • wRC+: 116 (3rd)
  • xwOBA: .345 (1st)
  • xBA: .261 (1st)
  • xSLG: .469 (1st)

Clearly, Minnesota’s lineup is nothing short of terrific. But, even historically great teams and players have flaws. And, there’s no question that the Yankees ramped up its advance scouting of the Twins as the regular season dwindled down. As one would expect, the Yankees will have a gameplan in place to slow Minnesota down. Whether or not they’re able to execute it remains to be seen.

With that, let’s take a look at some of the Twins’ most dangerous bats, descending from best to worst wRC+. This could give us some insight about what flaws the Yankees may be able to expose.

Nelson Cruz

The 39 year-old designated just had the best season of his career (!) per wRC+ (163). Cruz has been one of baseball’s best hitters for years now, but he’s never been better than 2019. So, how do the Yankees get him out? There’s really no easy way, unfortunately, but a good start would be to throw as many curves and sliders as possible.

(Baseball Savant)

There’s nothing really novel about this approach — most hitters fare better against fastballs than other pitch types. It’s a big reason why the Yankees have thrown the fewest fastballs in all of baseball since 2017.

Obviously, the Yankees will have to throw Cruz some heaters. Can’t get too predictable, you know. Ultimately, I think it’ll be essential to throw strikes with breaking balls against him. In particular, I’d expect the Yankees to throw a lot of first pitch breaking balls to him. Cruz offered at just 20.2 percent of breaking balls to start his at-bats as compared to the league average mark of 25.9 percent vs. that pitch type. Now, that’s a dangerous proposition considering it’s generally harder to throw a strike with a non-fastball, which could put Cruz in a more favorable count, but it’s a risk the Yankees may have to take.

Someone like Masahiro Tanaka, who’s had great success against Cruz in his career (.111/.111/.148 in 27 ABs), should be apt for this matchup. In the bullpen, Adam Ottavino appears best suited with his patented slider. Meanwhile, guys like Chad Green and Tommy Kahnle don’t seem like good opponents for Cruz. Lastly, although James Paxton and Luis Severino are known for their fastballs, they can go to their curveball (Paxton) and slider (Severino) quite effectively.

Mitch Garver

Did you know that the Twins’ catcher had a 155 wRC+? I did not.

The ideal approach vs. Garver isn’t all that much different to Cruz in terms of pitch selection. The key: avoid the fastball as much as possible, even moreso than against Cruz.

(Baseball Savant)

Garver’s a dead red fastball hitter. That said, it looks like you can sneak a fastball by him to start him off as he’s quite passive at the plate. This year, he swung at just 14.4 percent of 0-0 pitches as compared to the league’s 29.4 percent mark. He’ll swing a little more often against first-pitch fastballs (17.5 percent), but that’s still way below the league rate (30.4 percent).

(Baseball Savant)

Additionally, Garver really thrives against pitches up and away. It’ll be important for guys who do rely on their fastballs, like Paxton or Green or Aroldis Chapman, to bust him inside. Breaking balls down and away should be a recipe for success too.

Miguel Sanó

The Twins’ third baseman bounced back after a horrific .199/.281/.398 (83 wRC+) last season to post a 137 wRC+ in 2019. He has remarkable power, but it’s not always easy for him to tap into it considering his lifetime 36.3 percent strikeout rate.

Just to avoid repetitiveness, I won’t post another xwOBA vs. pitch type breakdown graph, but Sanó is very similar to Garver. He pounds fastballs but can’t do much against anything else.

Even though Sanó posts high strikeout numbers, he’s not an impatient hitter. He draws a good amount of walks (12 percent career), but there are undoubtedly holes in his swing.

(Baseball Savant)
(Baseball Savant)

Sanó loves to swing at pitches down in the zone, but isn’t particularly successful against those that are down and away. There’s no question that the Yankees will attack that area of the plate.

Luis Arráez

Arráez, a 22 year-old rookie, is a pest at the plate. He wasn’t a power hitter (.104 ISO), but he made a ton of contact (7.9 percent strikeout rate) and drew a good amount of walks (9.8 percent) in 366 plate appearances this year. All told, he posted a 125 wRC+. It looks like he had a decent amount of batted ball luck, as his batting average (.334) exceeded his xBA (.286). Still, it seems like his profile could make for a bit of a nuisance this series.

In spite of Arráez’s fourth-best wRC+ on the Twins, he’s someone Yankees’ pitchers need to pound the zone against.

(Baseball Savant)

Arráez is extremely patient at the dish. He swings less often than the rest of the league, even against pitches in the heart of the strike zone. And, considering that he doesn’t have much power, pitchers might as well go right after him. He’s not going to chase bad pitches and doesn’t strike out much anyway, so there’s no reason to nibble.

Max Kepler

The 26 year-old outfielder has been hampered by a sore left shoulder of late, but is expected to play in the ALDS. He’s one of the Twins’ left-handed threats and yet another hitter to break out for them this season. In three full seasons prior, Kepler had never posted a wRC+ above 98. In 2019, he recorded a 121 wRC+ while belting 36 dingers.

This year, Kepler upped his pull percentage to 50.8 percent, an increase of nearly 10 percent from last season. That makes him especially dangerous at Yankee Stadium. Without digging further, one would think Yankees’ pitchers should go away, away, away. And yet, Kepler can be beat inside:

(Baseball Savant)

Kepler can be neutralized by lefties – his lifetime wRC+ against them is 80, compared to 114 vs. righties – so we may get to experience CC Sabathia as a LOOGY against him. Kepler actually handles southpaws’ fastballs pretty well (.405 xwOBA), but does nothing vs. breaking (.234 xwOBA) or offspeed (.232 xwOBA) from left-handers. CC could come in and pummel him with sliders.

Kepler’s a bit more balanced against right-handers. One somewhat notable weakness: he struggles the most against righty offspeed pitches (.266 xwOBA), so Tommy Kahnle would be a good option to face him in a tight spot.

Interestingly, although Kepler draws plenty of bases on balls, he’s very aggressive to start at bats. He went after a remarkable 40.4 percent of 0-0 offerings, so the Yankees have to be careful and not groove in a fastball to start match ups against him.

Jorge Polanco

Minnesota’s shortstop had a heck of an offensive season after serving an 80 game PED suspension in 2018. In 704 plate appearances, the switch-hitter batted .295/.356/.485 with 22 dingers (120 wRC+).

Polanco is pretty disciplined at the plate in spite of league average walk rate (8.5 percent). He rarely swings at the first pitch he sees (23.5 percent), so perhaps the Yankees can get him behind in the count early.

For his career, he’s much better hitting left-handed (117 wRC+ vs. 86 wRC+ as a righty).

As a LHH (Baseball Savant)
As a RHH (Baseball Savant)

Jake Cave

Since Byron Buxton is done for the season, we should see plenty of the ex-Yankees farmhand this series. The 26 year-old outfielder has some pop from the left side; he belted 8 homers in 228 trips to the plate this season (113 wRC+).

Cave’s biggest flaw is his bat-to-ball skills. He’s gone down on strikes 32.2 percent of the time in his young career. Pitches up in the zone seem to give him the most trouble:

(Baseball Savant)

Cave, a left-handed hitter, had a reverse platoon split this season, but I’m not sure I’d make too much of that. He was pretty terrible against southpaws last year. For what it’s worth, he absolutely hammered left hander’s breaking balls this year:

(Baseball Savant)

Again, I’m not convinced that it would be enough to prevent Boone from going left-on-left here, but it’s worth noting.

Eddie Rosario

When I started this, I can’t say I expected Rosario to be this far down on the list. Another left-handed hitter, Rosario posted a 103 wRC+ this year, down from 114 and 117 in 2018 and 2017, respectively.

Rosario’s typical power was there (32 homers, .224 ISO), but his aggressive approach caught up to him this year. He’s never walked much, but an incredibly low 3.7 percent walk rate paired with a .273 BABIP hurt him. In spite of a low BABIP, he’s actually in line with his expected Statcast numbers, unlike prior years in which he usually beat them. He doesn’t tend to make a lot of hard contact, but he’s fly ball and pull-happy, so he’s a threat at Yankee Stadium no less.

(Baseball Savant)

Considering his walk rate, it probably doesn’t shock you that Rosario’s a hacker at the dish. He swung at 42 percent of first pitches seen this season. Additionally, he chased pitches out of the zone 41 percent of the time (league average is 24 percent), so the Yankees should be able to get him to 0-1 fairly often.

Rosario doesn’t have much of a platoon split this season, but historically he’s scuffled against lefties. In any event, Rosario’s easiest exposed away from the plate against lefties and down-and-away against righties.

vs. LHP (Baseball Savant)
vs. RHP (Baseball Savant)

CJ Cron

Minnesota’s primary first baseman absolutely pummeled lefties this season (160 wRC+), so expect him in the lineup against James Paxton. He’s historically been a lefty masher (121 wRC+), though he’s generally held his own against righties (105 wRC+ career vs. 78 wRC+ this season). Let’s focus on his threat to Yankees’ lefties since that’s his biggest strength.

(Baseball Savant)

Cron’s crushed breaking balls against lefties this season, and though he’s had a good deal of success against those offerings in the past, it’s never been quite like this. Paxton will probably have to focus on his fastball and cutter against the righty slugger. The good news for Big Maple is that Cron has scuffled against pitches high-and-tight against southpaws this year:

vs. LHP (Baseball Savant)

Paxton loves throwing his heater up there, so hopefully that can neutralize Cron. Aroldis Chapman should be able to capitalize on that area of the zone too. On the other hand, Zack Britton’s sinker may not be a great pitch against Cron.

Jonathan Schoop

The former Oriole recovered from an ugly 79 wRC+ last season to post a league average number in 2019. He hardly walks (3.8 percent career), but his power has been pretty steady since he entered the league. This year, he hit 23 dingers in 464 plate appearances and had a career best .217 ISO.

The Yankees will undoubtedly challenge Schoop’s patience at the dish. He’s a free swinger, going after 40.9 percent of first pitches. He also struck out 25 percent of the time this season.

(Baseball Savant)

That Schoop swung more often than not at pitches up and out of the strike zone says a lot about his aggressiveness.

(Baseball Savant)

Considering that he’s hit non-fastballs harder this year and in the past, I’d expect a lot of high cheese against Schoop.

Marwin González

González is nursing an oblique issue but is expected to be available for game 1. Marwin had a down year in his first season with the Twins, posting a 93 wRC+. The switch-hitter has no platoon split for his career – even at 101 wRC+ vs. either handedness.

(Baseball Savant)

From both sides of the plate, González has long had a hard time with breaking pitches. The Yankees should be happy to oblige with the team’s anti-fastball philosophy, so González should get a steady diet of curveballs and sliders.

Minnesota Twins Series Preview: 7/22 to 7/24

Low-key one of the best mascots in baseball. (MLB Gifs)

It’s a battle of two of the AL’s finest in Minneapolis this week as the Yankees take on the Twins.

Their Story Thus Far

At 60-38, the Twins have the third-best record in the American League behind the Yankees and Astros. Their division lead has slipped to just three games over the surging Indians.

The Twins’ offense is out here to slug and slug some more. They lead baseball with a .495 slugging percentage and their 115 wRC+ is second only to the Astros. The addition of Nelson Cruz coinciding with the emergence of Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco and Mitch Garver boosted their production significantly.

Minnesota also sports a strong pitching staff, which was expected to be the team’s weak spot going into the season. Unlike Twins teams of yore, they actually strike batters out. In the last month, they’ve begun issuing more walks and homers, but they are still fourth in pitching staff WAR. The Yankees are lucky to avoid ace Jose Berrios this series.

Injury Report

The Twins have just three players on the IL: C Willians Astudillo, OF LaMonte Wade and CF Byron Buxton. Buxton, who’s on the 7-day concussion IL, could return this week.

Spotlight: Twins’ trade deadline

I wanted to do something a little bit different this week because the Twins are a potential playoff opponent for the Yankees, and they’re likely to have a roster change or three by the time October hits.

As mentioned above, Minnesota’s 11.5-game division lead has slipped all the way down to three with 10 games remaining against the Indians. Despite visions of the team earning homefield advantage, they aren’t even secure of a playoff spot, let alone the division.

Their pitching staff has produced well this year, but the back-end of their rotation may not hold up in the postseason. The team could use upgrades in their rotation and bullpen, hence why the team has been linked to every pitcher mentioned on the market. Armed with a better farm system, Minnesota will be competing for the same players that the Yankees covet.

(MLB Gifs)

Bonus Spotlight: Max Kepler

Couldn’t stay away from a little praise for the Twins’ star outfielder. Kepler was born and raised in Germany yet played baseball and has slowly emerged as one of the better players on this Minnesota roster.

This is his first season with an above-average OPS+ as he’s hitting the ball harder and farther than ever before, already eclipsing his 20-home run career-high from 2018. He’s sporting personal bests in every Statcast category from barrels to exit velocity to having a higher launch angle.

His defense makes his breakout sustainable regardless of juiced balls or the current hitting environment. He’s tied for 11th in baseball with 5 Outs Above Average according to Statcast and has been able to fill in as the team’s center fielder with its ace fielder (Buxton) out.

Potential Lineup

  1. Mitch Garver, C (.294/.378/.638, 162 wRC+)
  2. Jorge Polanco, SS (.305/.363/.500, 124 wRC+)
  3. Nelson Cruz, DH (.270.364/.543, 134 wRC+)
  4. Miguel Sano, 3B (.234/.328/.549, 124 wRC+)
  5. Eddie Rosario, LF (.282/.312/.525, 113 wRC+)
  6. C.J. Cron, 1B (.263/.320/.494, 109 wRC+)
  7. Max Kepler, CF (.264/.333/.526, 121 wRC+)
  8. Marwin Gonzalez, RF (.260/.324/.419, 95 wRC+)
  9. Jonathan Schoop, 2B (.258/.308/.470, 100 wRC+)

Kepler will rise in the lineup against right-handed pitching, though he and Rosario may be buried against southpaws.

Minnesota also has a strong bench with catcher Jason Castro (119 wRC+), INF/OF Luis Arraez (155 wRC+), INF Ehire Adrianza (115 wRC+) and Jake Cave (78 wRC+). The versatility of Gonzalez and Arraez allows Minnesota to sport a cadre of lineups.

Pitching Matchups

Monday (8:10 PM ET) CC Sabathia (vs. Twins) vs. Martin Perez (vs. Yankees)

Perez was an early breakout for Minnesota as the team surged behind an unexpectedly good pitching staff. However, the former Rangers southpaw has come down to earth some in recent games.

Since June 1, he has a 4.69 ERA in 40 1/3 innings over seven starts, still able to pitch deep into games but not quite as effective as before.

Still, this is a better Perez than the one from previous seasons. His strikeouts are up from 5.5 to 7.9 K/9 while his walk rate has remained steady. Where he truly excels this year is a league-leading 0.7 HR/9, not giving up the massive amount of homers everyone else has.

The difference between the Perez of old and the one this season is his cutter, a new addition to his repertoire. The high-80s offering has allowed him to induce weak contact and he now sports a top 5 percentile exit velocity and hard-hit rate allowed. He still uses a four-seamer, sinker and changeup, but his cutter is his bread and butter now.

Perez (Baseball Savant)

Tuesday (8:10 PM ET) Domingo German (vs. Twins) vs. Kyle Gibson (vs. Yankees)

After going from slightly-above-replacement level starter to good last season, Gibson has sustained his breakout in his early 30s and shown he can be an effective pitcher by taking another step forward.

The right-hander has career-best strikeout and walk rates, raising his K-BB rate from 12.1 to 17.3 percent, a significant increase. It was 8.8 percent two years ago. His home run rate is up, though the sinker-baller still gets plenty of grounders.

Gibson attacks with his low-to-mid 90s sinker and is a five-pitch pitcher by using his slider, four-seamer, changeup and curveball each at least 10 percent of the time. He’s historically struggled against the Yankees (6.50 ERA), but he allowed just five hits and one run over 11.2 IP last year.

Gibson (Baseball Savant)

Wednesday (8:10 PM ET) J.A. Happ (vs. Twins) vs. Jake Odorizzi (vs. Yankees)

This is the same matchup from the one Twins victory over the Yankees from earlier this season on Star Wars day. Now, the Empire will have to strike back against the Twins’ No. 2 starter.

Odorizzi was a first-time All-Star this season as he has a 3.18 ERA over 99 innings. The right-hander has cut down on his walks and allowed fewer hits, though the latter may not be sustainable.

The former Ray excels by throwing his low-90s fastball by hitters, inducing a 30 percent whiff rate despite below-average velocity and spin rate. Its velocity jump this year has made it the fourth-best fastball by Fangraphs’ pitch values this season. He throws the pitch up in the zone and attacks with it more than 55 percent of the time.

Odorizzi (Baseball Savant)

Bullpen Status

Minnesota has pushed its bullpen to the limit over the weekend against the Athletics. Reliever Trevor May threw 49 pitches yesterday while Blake Parker and Tyler Duffey each pitched Friday and Saturday. Closer Taylor Rogers blew a save in a longer outing Saturday.

The team will receive a fresh arm as they optioned Zack Littell to the Minors after he pitched three straight days. Righties Ryne Harper and Kohl Stewart are available despite throwing in Sunday’s win.

The Twins designated three relievers (Adelberto Mejia, Mike Morin and Matt Magill) for assignment in the last 10 days, though they still have a fine back-end with Rogers — a former LOOGY-ish option turned effective closer — Parker and Duffey taking most of the late-game work. As mentioned above, they’re on the lookout for relief additions at the deadline.

Yankees Connections

Former Yankee starter Michael Pineda started Sunday, so he’ll miss this series, while former Yankees’ MiLB OF Jake Cave is the Twins’ fourth outfielder. Littell, optioned before this series, was traded by the Yankees to Minnesota in the Jaime Garcia deal in 2017. Finally, Parker spent the last two months of 2016 with the Yankees and earned a save on a wild Brett Gardner catch.

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