Tag: Kyle Holder

Yankees’ 2020 Rule 5 Draft Protection Preview

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Friday is the deadline for teams to add minor leaguers to the 40-man roster in order to protect them from the Rule 5 draft (for other key offseason dates, be sure to check out our offseason calendar). As of this writing, the Yankees have four open slots available. They could open up another spot or two via trade in the coming days, but at the same time, the organization may not feel the need to protect more than four players.

For a full list of draft eligible minor leaguers, head over to Pinstriped Prospects. I’ll briefly profile a few of the notable players the Yankees have to consider protecting.

Top prospects

Oswald Peraza | SS | 20 y/o | Single-A | 4th-best team prospect per MLB Pipeline

Peraza’s minor league numbers don’t jump off the page, but he has a good contact-oriented approach, plenty of speed, and is projected to stick at shortstop. It’s hard to imagine him sticking in the majors next year, but his prospect status makes it risky to expose him. I wonder if the Yankees are still scarred from losing catcher Luis Torrens, who was at the same level and age when the Padres drafted and stashed him.

Alexander Vizcaino | RHP | 23 y/o | High-A | 8th | 2020 Player Pool

Vizcaino was an older J2 signing in 2016 but has impressed in the minors. He can touch triple-digits with his fastball and has a plus changeup to boot. Clearly, the Yankees like the righty quite a bit because he spent this summer in Scranton. Even though he’s pitched exclusively as a starter over the past couple of minor league seasons, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him hold his own in a big league bullpen next season. I expect the Yankees to add him the 40-man this week.

A look at the Yankees’ Rule 5 protection candidates

Deivi’s safe.

We’ll finally see the Yankees make some roster moves this week. Tomorrow’s the deadline to protect eligible players from the Rule 5 draft, which occurs at the end of the winter meetings next month.

Right now, the Yankees have four open spots on the 40-man roster, which is ample room to select the players I believe are must-adds. That said, there’s always the possibility that the Yankees swing a minor trade in order to open up one more spot. In any event, let’s take a brief look at some of the eligible players.

Definite additions

Deivi García is now one of baseball’s top prospects and nearly made it to the majors this year. The 20 year-old should see some time in pinstripes next season, but will certainly start the season in Triple-A. After his rapid ascension last year, he’s a no brainer.

Two other pitchers need to be added in my view: Luis Gil and Luis Medina. The Yankees nabbed Gil from the Twins in exchange for Jake Cave, and he’s done nothing but dominate. He’s yet to reach Double-A and only has 13 innings in High-A, but there’s no way he’d slip through the Rule 5 draft. Elvis Luciano stuck with the Blue Jays all of last year as a 19 year-old who never pitched above rookie ball. That example, along with an expanded 26-man roster, would make Gil a top target.

I wouldn’t have expected Medina to be a definite earlier this year. He struggled in his first taste of action out of rookie ball and seemed doubtful to be drafted, even with his tantalizing stuff. Then, come July, Medina went off and earned a promotion to High-A Tampa. In his final 8 starts, we saw some of Medina’s remarkable potential: 45 2/3 innings, 63 strikeouts, 15 walks, and a 1.77 ERA. He seems like a prime candidate to stash as the 26th man all season, and the Yankees shouldn’t risk losing him.

Lastly, soon-to-be 22 year-old Estevan Florial will get a 40-man spot. Though he’s struggled the past two seasons since his breakout 2017, he’s dealt with a number of injuries. He’s far away, but his ability is too good to risk losing.

Strong candidates

These next three all feel deserving of a 40-man spot, but the Yankees are in a crunch. Nick Nelson, Miguel Yajure, and Kyle Holder all have their merits, but could be on the outside looking in.

Nelson, the team’s 4th round pick in 2016, posted strong numbers between Double-A and Triple-A this year. In 89 2/3 innings, he had a 2.81 ERA and 3.22 FIP. Nelson fanned 114 batters but walked a few too many (11.4 percent). Seems like prime draft fodder, but there’s only so many the Yankees can protect. That’s why we included him as a trade piece in our offseason plan.

Yajure performed very well this year, mostly in High-A Tampa. He did finish the year with two starts in Trenton. His 2.14 ERA and 2.65 FIP in 138 2/3 innings was impressive, but he also wasn’t overpowering as he’s not a hard thrower who racks up strikeouts. He was another guy we dealt in our offseason plan.

Holder is a glove-first shortstop who hasn’t hit much — until this year. Not that he raked or anything, but he did well for himself in Trenton. He hit .263/.335/.405 (119 wRC+) with the Thunder and had solid discipline (8.7 percent walk rate and 13.8 percent strikeout rate). That modicum of offense makes him a bit more intriguing as a utility-type, which is why we added the Yankees’ first rounder in 2015 to the 40-man roster in our offseason plan. It may be a stretch to add him with Tyler Wade and Thairo Estrada already around, though.

Unlikely, but somewhat close to the majors

Ben Ruta’s shown good bat-to-ball skills and the ability to play three outfield positions, but without much power, the Yankees don’t need to add the 25 year-old. He doesn’t seem particularly likely to be drafted, either.

The Yankees seem to protect a reliever every year, and Brooks Kriske could be that guy this time around. He struck out 32.2 percent of hitters in Double-A this year, but also had a walk rate north of 11 percent.

Power hitting Dermis García hasn’t become the guy the Yankees hoped when they gave him a $3.2 million bonus during their 2014-2015 IFA shopping spree. He did hit an impressive 17 dingers in just 297 plate appearances in Double-A this year, but his 35.4 percent strikeout rate will scare probably scare teams off.

22 year-old shortstop Hoy Jun Park performed well in Double-A (120 wRC+). He’s a speedy runner but doesn’t have really have a standout tool. If he had a glove like Holder, perhaps his situation would be different.

Rony García made 20 starts in Trenton this summer after he earned a promotion from Tampa early in the season. The nearly 22 year-old righty is an intriguing arm but not a must-protect.

Chris Gittens won the Eastern League MVP this year, but will have a hard time finding a 40-man spot. The first base/designated hitter prospect hit .281/.393/.500 with 23 dingers in 478 plate appearances, but struck out 29.1 percent of the time. Considering his age (26 in February), position, and high strikeout totals, it’s hard to see him get picked despite his impressive power.

Too far away

Oswaldo Cabrera, Freicer Perez, and Jio Orozco are just a few examples of prospects who are too far away for a team to gamble on in the Rule 5 draft.

Pitchers Perez, Orozco, and Vizcaino haven’t surpassed High-A yet. Orozco had mild success at the level this season, but nothing eye opening. Meanwhile, Perez didn’t pitch all of this season with an undisclosed injury. Seems to be shoulder-related, but there’s very little info.

Cabrera’s a 20 year-old infielder who was just OK with Tampa this season (104 wRC+) and lacks any standout tool. His teammate Olivares performed similarly at the level (107 wRC+), but the outfielder lacks power.


It’s often difficult to figure out who’s eligible for the Rule 5 draft each year, but there are a couple of indispensable sources that help. There’s often some uncertainty about some prospects, like 2015 international signee Alexander Vizcaino this year. He wasn’t included as eligible on MLB Pipeline or Pinstriped Prospects, which is what we’re referencing.

DoTF: Trenton grabs 2-0 lead on Holder’s 10th-inning homer

News & Notes

  • Greg Johnson of The Trentonian reports Luis Severino is expected to throw three innings while Dellin Betances should go about one inning Friday in Trenton. Thairo Estrada will join the team and play most of the game to begin his rehab.
  • Late to these, but Charleston starter Roansy Contreras was No. 2 on Baseball America’s Hot Sheet this week (Subs. Req) while Pulaski outfielder Antonio Cabello got a writeup on Baseball Prospectus (Subs Req). BA highlighted Contreras’ second half and BA wrote about Cabello’s projections as an 18-year-old.

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders has a day off in the ILDS … Durham leads the best-of-5 series, 1-0. Game 2 was postponed early, so Scranton is still in Durham.

Double-A Trenton Thunder ELDS Game 2: (3-0 win at Reading F/10) … While Kyle Holder got the game-winning homer, James Reeves deserves a ton of credit for his strong relief … They lead the series, 2-0, with Game 3 in Trenton on Friday.

  • Rehab Start: RHP Rony Garcia: 3.1 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 K, 1/2 GB/FB — 47 of 69 (68%) pitches were strikes … Left after back-to-back singles in the fourth … He had gone 5 IP in last three starts, so unsure exactly why this was so short … Trenton had rested bullpen though.
  • In Relief: LHP James Reeves: 3.2 IP, zeros, 6 K
  • In Relief: LHP Trevor Lane: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 HBP
  • In Relief: RHP Daniel Alvarez: 1 IP, zeros, 1 K
  • Hitting Star: SS Kyle Holder: 1-for-4, solo homer — Had been mired in an 0-for-24 skid … Had career-high nine HR in regular season.
  • On Deck: DH Isiah Gilliam: 2-for-5, 2B, K, GIDP
  • On Deck: 1B Chris Gittens: 1-for-3, 2B, BB, K
  • Notables: C Brian Navarreto went 1-for-4 with a 2B, RBI, R and 2 K … RF Alexander Palma and CF Rashad Crawford each went 1-for-4

DoTF: Trenton grabs 2-0 lead on Holder’s 10th-inning homer

News & Notes

  • Greg Johnson of The Trentonian reports Luis Severino is expected to throw three innings while Dellin Betances should go about one inning Friday in Trenton. Thairo Estrada will join the team and play most of the game to begin his rehab.
  • Late to these, but Charleston starter Roansy Contreras was No. 2 on Baseball America’s Hot Sheet this week (Subs. Req) while Pulaski outfielder Antonio Cabello got a writeup on Baseball Prospectus (Subs Req). BA highlighted Contreras’ second half and BA wrote about Cabello’s projections as an 18-year-old.

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders has a day off in the ILDS … Durham leads the best-of-5 series, 1-0. Game 2 was postponed early, so Scranton is still in Durham.

Double-A Trenton Thunder ELDS Game 2: (3-0 win at Reading F/10) … While Kyle Holder got the game-winning homer, James Reeves deserves a ton of credit for his strong relief … They lead the series, 2-0, with Game 3 in Trenton on Friday.

  • Rehab Start: RHP Rony Garcia: 3.1 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 K, 1/2 GB/FB — 47 of 69 (68%) pitches were strikes … Left after back-to-back singles in the fourth … He had gone 5 IP in last three starts, so unsure exactly why this was so short … Trenton had rested bullpen though.
  • In Relief: LHP James Reeves: 3.2 IP, zeros, 6 K
  • In Relief: LHP Trevor Lane: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 HBP
  • In Relief: RHP Daniel Alvarez: 1 IP, zeros, 1 K
  • Hitting Star: SS Kyle Holder: 1-for-4, solo homer — Had been mired in an 0-for-24 skid … Had career-high nine HR in regular season.
  • On Deck: DH Isiah Gilliam: 2-for-5, 2B, K, GIDP
  • On Deck: 1B Chris Gittens: 1-for-3, 2B, BB, K
  • Notables: C Brian Navarreto went 1-for-4 with a 2B, RBI, R and 2 K … RF Alexander Palma and CF Rashad Crawford each went 1-for-4

How the Yankees’ farm system looks after a stagnant deadline

So the Yankees didn’t make any Major League trades yesterday. Some of that was circumstance and high asking prices, but I think it also reflects on certain parts of the Yankees’ farm system.

Here are my thoughts/notes on the system, the deadline and more:

1. The Yankees’ system didn’t take the step forward everyone expected: Going into the season, Baseball America had the Yankees ranked as the No. 20 system in baseball. That was the general consensus: Not the worst system, but clearly not in the upper echelon.

However, with plenty of young, talented players, primarily pitchers, in the lower minors, the Yankees’ farm system was projected to move up as those pitchers did.

Instead, most of the system stagnated or slowed, giving the team very little upper minors depth from which to deal. They’re now No. 21 on BA. As much as one would love to just trade a bunch of Low-A and rookie-ball players for Marcus Stroman, the Blue Jays and Mets rightfully would want something more than a lottery ticket.

That isn’t to say there haven’t been some risers. Deivi Garcia and Luis Gil are great examples even despite Deivi’s rough Triple-A debut. They both give the Yankees a chance to have a homegrown talent in the rotation soon.

Thinking back to that beautiful Futures Game

However, the upper minors remain barren. Just eight of BA’s Yankees Top 30 prospects at midseason were at Double-A or higher. Thairo Estrada, at No. 22, is the highest-ranked position player above High-A. That obviously doesn’t include Clint Frazier, who is still prospect-y and can help team from Triple-A. Furthermore, the team doesn’t need much offensive help at the MLB level right now, though there’s still little from which to trade.

2. The Harvey trade and 40-man crunch: The one trade the Yankees did make was for LHP Alfredo Garcia of the Rockies in exchange for RHP Joe Harvey. Garcia just turned 20 and is in full-season ball for the first time. He has an ugly 6.28 ERA with 109 hits, 11 homers and 38 walks in 90.1 IP, though he’s fanned 103 batters. Surely, the Yankees see something more than those first few numbers suggest.

But this deal is indicative of the Yankees’ roster situation. As Fangraphs detailed in recent days, the Yankees are one of many teams in an upcoming 40-man roster crunch. Harvey is the first casualty. The Bombers have had to make many trades of a similar ilk in recent seasons with players like James Pazos, Caleb Smith and Garrett Cooper. Funny enough, Zack Littell was acquired for Pazos, then dealt instead of being added to the 40-man a year later.

The Yankees have had success on their end of these deals, adding Gil (in the Tyler Austin/Lance Lynn trade last year) and Michael King (for Smith/Cooper), though the latter trade doesn’t look quite as good in retrospect.

The point being: The Yankees exchanged a 40-man player they’d have otherwise likely non-tendered for a younger player a few years from Rule 5 eligibility. There will be a few more trades like that this offseason (or in August with non-40-man players) and some players exposed to the Rule 5 draft.

3. Don’t forget about recent graduations and trades: When evaluating a team’s MiLB system in a snapshot, it’s easy to forget about the recent past. The Yankees have gotten a lot out of their farm system.

Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, Domingo German and Frazier, plus Nestor Cortes Jr., are recent graduations from the farm system to help the big league team stay afloat the last couple seasons. They wouldn’t be on pace to win 100+ games for the second straight season without them. (Again, that doesn’t even include Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez and Luis Severino).

The Yankees already used plenty of prospect depth: The Yankees have been active at the previous few trade deadlines and offseasons, dealing over a dozen prospects for Sonny Gray, J.A. Happ, James Paxton, Tommy Kahnle and others.

Plenty of those players dealt, as I wrote about earlier this year, haven’t been good enough in their new homes for the Yankees to regret trading them. Some also would have been 40-man roster casualties.

But all of that adds up to players the Yankees can no longer trade, chips already cashed in. They still have some, or had some in relation to yesterday, but some of their depth was no longer free to trade.

Florial with a very good boy! (@TampaTarpons on Twitter)

4. Injuries and Florial’s step back hurting team: Part of why the Yankees’ farm system hasn’t taken a step forward is the ole injury bug. 2018 draft picks Josh Breaux and Anthony Seigler are both on the IL with Breaux dealing with an arm issue after an impressive beginning to his South Atlantic League season. Seigler, meanwhile, didn’t hit when healthy but was also delayed by injuries this year and likely has been banged up for all of his first full pro season.

The Yankees’ top Triple-A pitching prospect, Michael King, just made it to Triple-A yesterday after an arm injury kept him out for 3+ months. That’s a killer. If he’d continued on his trajectory from 2018, he could have helped the Major League roster by midseason or been a useful trade chip.

Furthermore, Garrett Whitlock was one of this season’s risers as a former 16th-round pick, but now he needs Tommy John surgery after showing well in Trenton.

However, Estevan Florial’s season has to be the most disappointing. The Yankees’ only consensus top 100 prospect going into the year, Florial suffered a significant injury for the second straight year: A dislocated wrist during Spring Training.

The injury kept him out until June, and he hasn’t found his swing since. In fact, he’s taken a step back from his 110 wRC+ with High-A Tampa last year. Repeating the level, he’s batting just .227/.277/.343 with an 85 wRC+. His walk rate has been halved and his strikeout rate is back up to concerning levels (34.7 percent).

Back-to-back years with hand injuries has made it so he hasn’t shown much power in 2018 or ’19. Still, he’s just 21 years old and will be 22 next year. The Yankees will still add him to the 40-man roster, or be able to use him in trade. However, his value has diminished significantly from top-prospect status.

5. A closer look at a few full-season pitchers: We got an email this week about Clarke Schmidt, and then he promptly figured into the Yankees’ failed Robbie Ray pursuit. While BA has him at No. 16 on their Yankees list, the right-hander is No. 11 on Fangraphs’ big board and is all the way to No. 5 for MLB.com.

The Yankees’ first-round pick in 2017 (No. 16 overall), Schmidt has pitched sparingly in the Minors. He was selected despite having undergone Tommy John surgery just before the draft and he’s dealt with injuries since turning pro. Still, the 23-year-old college arm has had a strong season.

In 53.1 IP for High-A Tampa, he has a 3.38 ERA (2.97 FIP) with 56 strikeouts to 19 walks, allowing just two home runs. Between his injuries and 6-foot-1 stature, some evaluators believe he’s ticketed for the bullpen long-term. Still, he has a future in the org.

Meanwhile, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention Miguel Yajure. The 21-year-old has a 2.06 ERA with Tampa while keeping the ball onto the ground. Unlike Schmidt, he’s been able to go full-tilt this year a few seasons removed from TJ surgery, throwing a career-high 109.1 IP so far this year. He doesn’t overpower with his fastball-changeup combo, but he’s shown enough to get 40-man consideration after the year.

Finally, Albert Abreu is No. 7 on both MLB.com and BA, though Fangraphs has him at No. 20. The soon-to-be 24-year-old has struggled to find the plate consistently but is still able to get outs anyway, unlike fellow Yankees prospect Luis Medina, who has an ERA and BB/9 above 6.8. Abreu could be feeling the roster crunch this offseason as he’s already on the 40-man.

6. Brief notes on Canaan Smith and Kyle Holder: I really like Canaan Smith. As a 20-year-old in Single-A, he’s batting .317/.415/.474 with a 158 wRC+ and a walk rate (14.3 percent) just 6.4 percent lower than his K rate. At this point, he’s shown all he can in Charleston.

However, the question with Smith isn’t just his bat. As a corner outfielder, the question is whether he can hit enough to justify his place at a lesser position in the Majors. The Yankees have plenty of outfield depth in the Majors right now, though plenty can change by the time Smith would be ready.

Kyle Holder, meanwhile, has been one of Double-A Trenton’s best hitters with a .278/.335/.434 batting line and 124 wRC+ this year. He’s good at putting his bat on the ball and already was a wizard with the glove. His future as a middle infielder in the Majors looks brighter than it did a year ago.

7. Recent picks showing off in Pulaski, Staten Island: As the last point, just want to point out some of the good hitting going on in the low Minors for the Yankees. I’m of the belief that you can judge most pitching prospects until they get at least to Single-A, so I’ll hold off on T.J. Sikkema’s strong debut for now.

But Anthony Volpe and Josh Smith have gotten off to good starts. Volpe didn’t hit for about a month — He is, after all, an 18-year-old, playing pro ball — but he’s started to find his swing and he’s raised his wRC+ to 98 after being about half that a few weeks ago. Best part is his walks as he posts a 14.6 percent walk rate. Smith only debuted a week ago after signing later. Still, it’s hard not to like how he’s walked five times and struck out just once in Staten Island.

Meanwhile, keep an eye on Chad Bell, Ryder Green and Ezequiel Duran at those same levels. Bell, a 19-round pick out of college, has a 146 wRC+ thus far, though also sports a 32.8 percent K rate, while Green (138 wRC+) and Duran (164 wRC+) have taken real steps forward as they repeat the low minors.

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