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Reviewing the Yankees’ 2022 Projections: PECOTA

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As we await the daily updates from the league and union’s collective bargaining sessions, the Yankees made some news this morning. The team will retire Paul O’Neill’s no. 21 on August 21, finally putting an end to its unofficial retirement for two decades. That’s a Sunday afternoon game against the Blue Jays. There’s been some consternation about not issuing O’Neill’s number over the years, so if you want to discuss any of this news in the comments, have at it.

This morning’s news aside, today I’m breaking down Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections for the 2022 season, which were released last week. As rosters currently stand, PECOTA envisions a second place finish for the Yankees, projecting a hair under 94 wins, trailing the Blue Jays by a game. Obviously, signing one Freddie Freeman or Carlos Correa would change things. For now though, allow me to break down some of PECOTA’s individual projections on the Yankees’ current roster.

Jordan Montgomery was a steady hand [2021 Season Review]

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There’s nothing overly exciting about Jordan Montgomery’s game. And yet, he sure is competent. The tall lefty made 30 starts, tossed 157.1 innings, and recorded a 3.83 ERA (112 ERA+) in 2021. He did miss a couple of starts because of COVID-19, but otherwise, he was about as dependable as it gets.

In spite of Monty’s strong year, some were left unsatisfied, mainly because of a brutal final performance. In fact, he picked the worst time to have his worst start of the season: Game 161 against the Rays. The Yankees still hadn’t clinched a playoff spot and Monty’s bad game (knocked out in the third inning) forced the Yanks into a pivotal Game 162.

Don’t let that clunker cloud your memory of Montgomery’s 2021 campaign, though. There’s no denying that it was awful timing for a miserable game, but the fact of the matter is that the southpaw was instrumental to one of MLB’s best rotations this year.

Game 161: A shameful performance

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The Yankees didn’t show up today. Not the starting pitcher, not the manager, and not the offense. As a result, the Rays stomped the Yankees, 12-2. Let’s not waste any more time and get right to the takeaways:

Game 156: Sweep, sweep victory

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The Yankees really, really tried to give this one away, but a late-inning rally headlined by Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton led the Bombers to a 6-3 win and a dramatic sweep of the Boston Red Sox.  This weekend was everything it needed to be, and the Yankees are now a full game up on the top wild card spot going into another big series against the Toronto Blue Jays.  To the takeaways:

Game 147: Embarrassing

With 15 games to play and the scramble for the AL Wild Card spots becoming no less intense, every game is a must-win for the Yankees – especially games like today’s, against a team like the Orioles, with a pitcher like Jordan Montgomery on the mound. Alas, despite an excellent outing from Montgomery and holding a lead with 8 ⅔ innings in the books, the Yankees found a way to blow it in Baltimore and dropped this game 3-2 in 10. To the takeaways –

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