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Closing the book on the Andrew Miller trade

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Now that the Yankees non-tendered Clint Frazier (who subsequently signed with the Cubs), no one remains in the organization with a direct connection to the Andrew Miller trade.

On July 31, 2016, the Yankees traded Miller to Cleveland for a handful of prospects: Frazier, Justus Sheffield, Ben Heller, and J.P. Feyereisen. The deal was considered a haul for New York at the time, as Frazier (44th) and Sheffield (81st) were top 100 prospects according to Baseball America. And yet, in hindsight, it looks like Cleveland won the trade (I know, I know: hindsight is 20/20). Prospects are exciting but oftentimes miss.

Miller was a pivotal part of the bullpen for Cleveland’s pennant-winning club in 2016 and was excellent again in 2017. Frazier had some awful luck health wise, showed flashes of excellence in 2020, but never could put it all together in The Bronx. Sheffield was spun off for James Paxton a couple of years later in a deal that worked out pretty well for the Yanks. Heller struggled to stay healthy, and the Yankees dealt Feyereisen to Milwaukee in 2019.

Mailbag: Looking to the trade deadline (already), bench construction, favorite game from 2013

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We have a couple of inquiries to address in this week’s mailbag. As always, send any questions you have to viewsfrom314 [at] gmail [dot] com. We’ll consider and select our favorites each week. With that, let’s get to what in store this morning:

Daniel asks: Who do you think will be available at the trade deadline?

I think you’re going to see a spillover of some names we heard come up this winter. Kris Bryant and Trevor Story immediately come to mind as the two top players who could be available a few months from now. Hell, if the Bryant/Mets rumors from previous weeks have any validity, he may not even last until July.

The key thing that Bryant and Story have in common is that both are free agents after this season. Both don’t seem particularly likely to stay put on their current teams, either. The Cubs (Yu Darvish) and Rockies (Nolan Arenado) have just traded core players, clearly signaling a rebuild. Plus, Bryant’s relationship with the Cubs is icy and the Rockies never seem to hold on to their top players.

Now, I don’t really expect the Yankees to go for a big rental like Bryant or Story. That’s just not something they’ve done in a long time. Wouldn’t surprise me to see the Yankees go after an infielder midseason, but definitely not a top tier guy. Someone like Baltimore’s Freddy Galvis should be available. If not Galvis, likely another upcoming free agent.

It’s more likely that the Yankees go after another pitcher at the deadline. We’d all like to have Luis Castillo in pinstripes, but let’s not get carried away. I really doubt he’ll be available. The Reds have absolutely no good reason to trade him. In combing through pitchers in contract seasons, a few stood out as potentially available come the deadline:

  • Dylan Bundy
  • Zach Davies
  • Kevin Gausman
  • James Paxton

Bundy has fascinated me as a target since last summer, and I’m including him again. The Angels aren’t actually going to contend, right? Right. The Cubs just picked up Davies in the Darvish trade and there’s no reason to think they’re keeping Davies if they aren’t in the hunt. Then there’s Gausman, who the Yankees have had interest in before. Finally, why not a reunion with Paxton midseason? What if he’s back to throwing in the mid-to-upper 90s? The Mariners aren’t going anywhere. We know Paxton can pitch in New York. As strange as that would be, it could work.

News & Notes: Winter League Opener, Yadier Molina rumor, and a James Paxton update

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Awards season trudges on as the hot stove remains pretty quiet. Tonight, we’ll find out the AL and NL MVPs. As you know, DJ LeMahieu is a finalist in the AL. The Yankees haven’t had an MVP winner since A-Rod won in 2007. The winner will be announced on MLB Network at 6 p.m. eastern. While you wait for that, here’s the latest Yankees-related news:

Domingo Germán to start Dominican Winter League Opener

If we are to believe Brian Cashman and Hal Steinbrenner, Domingo Germán’s future with the Yankees is still up in the air. Tonight could be his first step in a return to pinstripes though, as he starts the season opener for Toros Del Este in the Dominican Winter League. I don’t know what Hal needs to see from Germán in order to bring him back next year, but it very well could be lip service. Frankly, I fully expect the team to bring him back without (publicly) addressing any rehabilitation following his domestic violence suspension.

Also of note, Miguel Andújar and Gary Sánchez will Germán’s teammates, though Gary isn’t expected to report to the team until next month. We’ll see if Miggy is in the lineup tonight.

If you want to watch the game this evening, you can register here. It’s $15 for the full season, which is a bargain.

Things never came together for James Paxton [2020 Season Review]

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Last year, James Paxton was the Yankees best pitcher down the stretch. This season, the team couldn’t count on him at all. From injuries to depleted stuff, the lefty simply couldn’t get himself going in 2020. The timing couldn’t have been worse for both him (as an impending free agent) and the Yankees (whose pitching depth thinned out really quickly).

Health issues

There was palpable excitement about Paxton’s 2020 before we learned he needed back surgery in February. He was excellent in the second half of 2019 and delivered a solid postseason. In particular, his six innings of one run ball against the Astros in Game 5 of the ALCS. But little did we know that Paxton was troubled with back pain dating back to last postseason.

Paxton needed treatment to make those postseason starts, but the hope was rest would have him at full strength for 2020. Instead, discomfort flared up during Paxton’s offseason workouts, and a wait and see approach simply didn’t work. He went under the knife and was expected to return sometime in May or June.

Of course, Paxton didn’t actually miss any time due to surgery because of COVID-19 postponing the start of the regular season. That doesn’t mean it didn’t loom large later, however. As I’ll get to in a moment, Paxton was never himself during his five regular season starts. Sure, he put together one very good start in Tampa Bay, but it wasn’t with his vintage stuff.

Paxton was never able to iron out his mechanics upon his return either. That quite possibly led to a flexor strain in his left arm. As a result, his season effectively ended on August 20th. There was some hope that he’d return at some point down the stretch, perhaps as a reliever in the postseason, but that obviously never came to fruition.

Mailbag: 2021 rotation, Voit’s contract, COVID-19 opt-outs, and Urshela’s metrics

Got a few questions to answer as we head into the final weekend of the regular season. Before we dive in, remember to send your questions to viewsfrom314 [at] gmail [dot] com for a chance to be included in a future mailbag. Now, to this week’s questions:

A few people asked: What does the Yankees’ 2021 rotation look like?

People sure love to talk about next year’s team when this season isn’t over, huh? Nonetheless, I’ll oblige.

As you likely know, the Yankees can lose Masahiro Tanaka, James Paxton, and JA Happ in free agency this offseason. That leaves a number of holes to fill, though the team does have enough big league caliber starters to fill out a staff. It just may not be as good as this year (or before this year). The players under contract for 2021: Gerrit Cole, Luis Severino, Jordan Montgomery, Domingo Germán, Deivi García, Clarke Schmidt, and Michael King.

Of course, there are caveats with the seven pitchers I just rattled off. Severino is recovering from Tommy John surgery and will start the 2021 season on the injured list. Germán will have just finished his suspension under the league’s domestic violence policy, so who knows how much rust he will have to shake off. Montgomery was a roller coaster this season. King was terrible. Schmidt will have just one big league start to his name entering 2021. At least Cole and Deivi looked great.

Now, if all goes well, that group could look pretty good by 2021’s end! Cole and Severino could make for a formidable one-two punch. García and Schmidt have a ton of upside. Germán and Montgomery are more than capable back-end guys, with the former having shown flashes of better than that in 2019.

That said, count on the Yankees reinforcing the rotation this year. For one, I’d bet on Tanaka’s return, but I expect Paxton and Happ to depart. Don’t expect any free agent splurges like Trevor Bauer to replace those guys, though. A trade or middle-market free agent (Kevin Gausman? Marcus Stroman? Mike Minor?) signing seems more likely. Here’s what I envision as the Yankees’ ideal rotation come Opening Day 2021:

  1. Gerrit Cole
  2. Masahiro Tanaka
  3. Trade/Free Agent
  4. Deivi García
  5. Jordan Montgomery

By season’s end, you can slot in Sevy. Forget about who that boots from the staff as that sorta thing always seems to sort itself out. Injuries and unexpected performances happen.

Paul asks: Should Luke Voit’s contract be extended?

Everyone at this here blog loves Voit, but this answer is a pretty easy no. Voit turns 30 in February and won’t be a free agent until after the 2024 season. It stinks for the first baseman, but he was a late bloomer who won’t hit the open market until his mid-thirties. That leaves the Yankees very little motivation to extend him beyond 2024 at the moment.

Voit’s now a lifetime 138 wRC+ hitter in over 1,000 big league plate appearances and should still get paid fairly well in arbitration. He’s going to be super-two eligible this offseason and should get a nice raise over the near league-minimum pay he’s gotten over the last couple of seasons. More traditional stats like home runs and RBIs pay in arbitration, and Luke’s got those aplenty.

Aside from age and team control considerations, I think Voit’s position and health are detractors from any extension. I just don’t see much of a reason to lock up a 1B/DH type when the team already has a number of those guys on the roster already. Additionally, though Voit has played through “foot stuff” this season, I can’t help but worry about his health over the long run. Last year’s oblique injury really held him back too.

Dan asks: I recall speculation before the season started that players who were on teams that were clearly eliminated would be compelled to opt-out, to avoid playing in meaningless games.  Obviously, that hasn’t happened.  Are you surprised at all?

I’m a little surprised, but I think that there are two big reasons we haven’t seen a bunch of opt-outs.

First, The expanded playoffs have definitely played a big part here. 21 of the league’s 30 teams are still alive with just three games remaining. Had the league stuck to 10 playoff teams for this season, perhaps we’d see a lot more guys bowing out early.

Additionally, perhaps players have become more confident in the league’s health protocols as the season’s gone on. The amount of positive tests and team-wide outbreaks has slowed down the stretch. Earlier this season, it was a lot easier to imagine players dropping out as playoff hopes dwindled because of the numerous positive tests and postponements.

All that said, one high profile player has opted out this week: Andrelton Simmons. The Angels (26-31) are technically still alive too, though it’ll take a lot going right for them to overcome the Astros (29-28) for second place in the AL West.

Jeremy asks: Gio Urshela is the man. I’m hoping you can help me understand something about his advanced stats (and advanced stats in general). His Exit Velo (86th percentile), xBA (98th), and xSLG (86th) are elite. Why are those stats so high when his Hard Hit% (56th) and Barrel% (48th) are fairly average? His K% (90th) is pretty elite but I feel like that only explains part of the xBA and not much of anything else. Is it more so because his GB%/FB%/LD% mix (38.3%/19.2%/38.3%) is seemingly much better than the MLB average (45.3%/21.9%/25.7%)?

It’s definitely strange that Gio’s hard hit percentage and barrel percentage aren’t up to snuff with his average exit velocity. I do think that Jeremy is on the right track with the batted ball type mix, but there’s one other thing I’d like to add.

ComparisonWeak %Topped %Under %Flare/Burner %Solid %Barrel %

Gio’s distribution of batted ball quality is excellent. He may not have a ton of hard hits or barrels, but he almost never makes weak contact. He also doesn’t get on top of the ball too often either. Further, the “under” or “flare/burner” category isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Many of those are bloopers that dunk in. Better than a weak hit or chopper that’s almost an automatic out.

We should also keep in mind what this means for Gio’s hard hit and barrel percentages. Remember, a hard hit ball is 95 MPH or greater exit velocity in any direction. Grounders, pop-ups, or line drives can all get the same treatment under hard hit percentage. So just because Urshela isn’t great there doesn’t mean his exit velocity and xStats are inflated. Rather, it appears that Urshela’s distribution of hit quality helps him in the exit velocity department, while his launch angle helps him rarely hit into easy outs.

As Jeremy noted, Gio hits grounders well below league average and hits liners well above league average. Consider that with his hit quality distribution and elite bat-to-ball skills and you can see why Urshela’s had so much success.

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