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Reviewing the Yankees’ 2022 Projections: PECOTA

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As we await the daily updates from the league and union’s collective bargaining sessions, the Yankees made some news this morning. The team will retire Paul O’Neill’s no. 21 on August 21, finally putting an end to its unofficial retirement for two decades. That’s a Sunday afternoon game against the Blue Jays. There’s been some consternation about not issuing O’Neill’s number over the years, so if you want to discuss any of this news in the comments, have at it.

This morning’s news aside, today I’m breaking down Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections for the 2022 season, which were released last week. As rosters currently stand, PECOTA envisions a second place finish for the Yankees, projecting a hair under 94 wins, trailing the Blue Jays by a game. Obviously, signing one Freddie Freeman or Carlos Correa would change things. For now though, allow me to break down some of PECOTA’s individual projections on the Yankees’ current roster.

Miami Marlins Series Preview: July 30 – August 1

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Well, after once again failing to sweep a series — the Yankees are now 3-10 when going for a sweep this year — and suffering their worst loss since 2007, the Bombers with their newfound lefty power head to Miami to take on the Marlins this weekend. The last time these two teams played, the Marlins took 2 of 3 to finish the 2020 season and qualify for the playoffs.

Game 98: Déjà Vu

Fun fact: Olivia Rodrigo’s hit song Déjà Vu is actually about the 2021 New York Yankees. Today, the Yankees replayed their biggest hit in a 5-4 loss to the Red Sox: a gut-wrenching bullpen meltdown.

The Yankees were in total control through seven-and-a-half innings today. They led 4-0 and Domingo Germán was working on a no-hitter. Then, it all came crashing down like it has so many times before this season. To the takeaways we go:

Game 85: Offense strikes early, Cessa bridges gap in win

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It probably shouldn’t have been close, but a win’s a win. The Yankees are 44-41 with tonight’s 5-4 victory over the Mariners in Seattle. It’s the team’s third consecutive win, and tomorrow, they can complete the series sweep.

The Yanks tallied all five runs in the first two innings against Yusei Kikuchi, only to go quietly the rest of the night. Early runs were just what the doctor ordered with a spot starter in Nick Nelson tonight, although the Yanks were going to need a lot of offense considering how scheduled starter Domingo Germán (scratched because of a root canal) has pitched of late. Especially when Nelson couldn’t complete the first inning and was dreadful. But thankfully, the unheralded Luis Cessa saved the day in long relief even as the Yankees’ offense cooled off.

Germán did get into this one later, only to make it interesting by allowing a three-run homer, but Jonathan Loaisiga and Chad Green slammed the door to preserve the lead and win. Here are the takeaways:

Game 80: All you can do is laugh

@Yankees

Holy moly, that was an awful loss. Worst loss of the season, no doubt, though we’ve said that before and perhaps we’ll say it again. Hal Steinbrenner speaks with the media tomorrow, and while he probably won’t say anything to appease anyone, it’s…amusing (?) that this was tweeted while the team was winning, and now, he’ll hold court after whatever on earth this game was.

This was shaping up to be a laugher, especially after they scored seven in the first and knocked out Shohei Ohtani before the inning finished. It even looked like this game would be over early due to rain — why exactly they decided to wait around an hour and a half to resume what was already an official game, I don’t know. Instead, they resumed, didn’t tack on runs, and Aroldis Chapman had an absolute meltdown. There were “Fire Boone” chants from those left at the Stadium, by the way. Can you blame them?

Anyway, I do have takeaways from tonight’s game. I’m not sure if what I’ve written so far, or anything going forward, is coherent because it’s past 1am on the east coast. Alas, here we go.

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