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Reviewing the Yankees’ 2022 Projections: Steamer

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Earlier this month, I broke down the Yankees’ 2022 ZiPS projections which are published at FanGraphs. Also on display at FG is Steamer, another projection system that I’ll take a look at today. And once Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA is published, I’ll get to that one as well.

On the whole, Steamer projects the Yankees to accumulate roughly +49 WAR. That’s three more than ZiPS and translates to a high-90s win ballclub as presently constituted. Granted, the process of adding up the WAR is often foolhardy, but it serves as a reminder that the Yankees should still be very good in 2022. Now, to the individual player projections:

Game 139: Still free falling

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Another night, another loss. All of the goodwill from the 13-game winning streak has already run out, but it just keeps getting worse. With this 6-3 defeat at the hands of the Blue Jays, the Yankees are now 2-9 since the streak ended. Additionally, Boston eclipsed the Yankees for the top Wild Card spot tonight and Toronto is one behind the Yankees in the loss column. Simply put: the Yankees hold on a playoff spot is tenuous right now and I’m having a hard time finding reason for optimism.

These takeaways are on the shorter side because all of us had pretty busy work days and/or personal commitments. Not that you want to read a long-winded recap of this one, I presume. Let’s get to it.

Game 136: Pathetic and Embarrassing

Putrid. Atrocious. A debacle. An abomination. All of those are words Randy and I likely used to describe the Orioles before this series on the podcast. Yet today, after this 8-7 loss and series loss, the only team they apply to is the Yankees. After all the heartbreaking losses they’ve suffered this year it’s hard to say this is rock bottom, but it’s easily the most embarrassing loss of the year considering the context.

The Orioles are going to lose 100 games for the 3rd year in a row. It is inconceivable that a team with championship aspirations loses a series to them. Hell, the Orioles were 1-15-2 in series against the AL East coming into this one. The Yankees lost 2 games in this series. That’s as many games as they lost the Orioles in all of 2019 and MORE games than the Rays have lost to the O’s this season. You want to know why one of those teams is leading the AL East and the other is fighting for a Wild Card spot? That’s why.

I hope you found something better to do with your Labor Day Weekend Sunday because that was 4 hours I want back. The Yankees are 2-6 since the 13 game winning streak and just lost two straight series to teams below .500. At least the Rays, A’s, and Red Sox all lost so the Yankees don’t lose any ground in the playoff races. Let’s get to the takeaways:

Game 130: Offense and defense leave Montgomery hanging

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A new win streak did not start today. Instead, the A’s topped the Yankees 3-1 thanks to a clutch two-run homer from Tony Kemp against Chad Green in the eighth inning. The Bombers offense was quiet as they often are when Jordan Montgomery starts, for whatever reason. Monty was very good today, of course.

After taking the first two games of this series and riding a 13-game winning streak, the Yanks have now lost two in a row. That pushes them to six games behind the first place Rays in the division, though the Yankees do hold a two game edge on Boston for the top Wild Card spot. Fortunately, Tampa Bay is done playing the Orioles this season, though they did what they were supposed to do against them. Anyway, let’s get to the takeaways from this evening’s loss:

Game 85: Offense strikes early, Cessa bridges gap in win

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It probably shouldn’t have been close, but a win’s a win. The Yankees are 44-41 with tonight’s 5-4 victory over the Mariners in Seattle. It’s the team’s third consecutive win, and tomorrow, they can complete the series sweep.

The Yanks tallied all five runs in the first two innings against Yusei Kikuchi, only to go quietly the rest of the night. Early runs were just what the doctor ordered with a spot starter in Nick Nelson tonight, although the Yanks were going to need a lot of offense considering how scheduled starter Domingo Germán (scratched because of a root canal) has pitched of late. Especially when Nelson couldn’t complete the first inning and was dreadful. But thankfully, the unheralded Luis Cessa saved the day in long relief even as the Yankees’ offense cooled off.

Germán did get into this one later, only to make it interesting by allowing a three-run homer, but Jonathan Loaisiga and Chad Green slammed the door to preserve the lead and win. Here are the takeaways:

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