Room for Improvement: Ben Rice
An adjustment needed to take the next step
On September 21 of last year, my wife and I took our sons to Citi Field. Why would a family of Yankee fans go to a Mets game? That day, a Sunday, was a day for kids to ru the bases after the game, so we went for that, which the kids had a great time doing. The Mets losing–mostly thanks to a pair of spectacular catches by Nationals’ centerfielder Jacob Young–was an added bonus. Before the running, though, and after the catches, is where the point to all this lies.
While we were waiting on line outside the stadium to be allowed back in for running, I pulled up the Yankee game on my phone. My nine year old, Ryan, then a newly minted fan of the game said, as Ben Rice came to the plate with the bases loaded against the Orioles, “Wouldn’t it be cool if Ben Rice hit a grand slam?” You know what happened next. That game-winning home run was one of 26 for Rice in 2025, an undoubtedly successful first full season in MLB. In addition to the home runs, Rice hit .255/.337/.499, with an .836 OPS (131 OPS+) and a .358 wOBA (133 wRC+) with strong numbers under the hood. Poised to be the current and future first baseman for the Yankees, Rice will look to improve on those numbers even more in 2026. Let’s see where he could use it.
Admittedly, there aren’t a ton of places to look. His raw numbers were good; his walk rate was nearly 10% and his strikeout rate was below 20%. All his under-the-hood contact numbers at Baseball Savant were in at least the 65th percentile, except for walk rate (63rd). After a little more perusing,one thing caught my eye: an increased whiff rate against breaking pitches.
In 2025, Rice saw a breaking ball at about a 33% clip, an increase from his brief 2024 (29.7%). Overall, Rice had a 36.6% whiff rate against breaking pitches. It jumped big from 2024 (25.5) overall; 20.5 to 23.4 in the zone; and 40 to 61.5% outside the zone. Now, on the plus side, this didn’t lead to a total lack of production against breaking balls. While he only hit .207 against them in 85 batted ball events, he made that .207 count. His SLG was .437 (.230 ISO) and he had a .330 wOBA, so there were positives even with the swing and miss. My worry, though, isn’t about 2025’s production, but what will happen going forward.
If teams exploit this without an adjustment from Rice, it could hinder production in 2026. We’re all aware of the stagnation some Yankee hitting prospects have experienced at the Major League level and we obviously don’t want that to happen with Rice. Do I think it will? Probably not, but this is an area where Rice can improve to take that next step.