Rodon's Solid Start
Is Carlos Good, Actually?
As an organization, the Yankees are no strangers to frustrating pitchers whose results don’t always match their talent. Javier Vazquez. A.J. Burnett. Sonny Gray. The current iteration of that is lefty Carlos Rodon. However, 2025 has gotten off to what seems like a good start for him.
As of right now, Rodon has a 3.50 ERA and a 3.83 FIP, good for a 90 ERA- and a 93 FIP-, both of which would be top three in his career and easily his best with the Yankees. Another near career best is his strikeout rate, sitting at 31.5%. This being Carlos Rodon, though, there are some warts.
His HR/FB rates are high and his BB% is also a career high. His strand rate is way down from last year, though it’s about his career norm and is way up from the disastrous 2023.
So, with all that, what’s led him to have those seemingly good numbers?
A big factor has been his increased ground ball percentage. Right now, it’s sitting at a career high—48.8%— and each pitch has seen an increase in ground ball percentage. Two pitchers are notable here: the slider and the changeup. His slider is up to over 52% for grounders, which would be a great compliment to a pitch that already gets lots of whiffs. His changeup’s GB% is just over 72% as well, which is more or less the point of the pitch. Add in that he’s using it his highest rate in five years and the changeup could be a legitimate weapon. Aside from the grounders, though, there’s something else I wanted to look at: Rodon’s work around the zone.
A pitcher’s approach in and around the zone is an obvious place to look, but there was something that stood out to me regarding his chase rates and where he’s putting the ball. First, Rodon is at +5 runs in the shadow of the zone per Statcast, which puts him in the top-15 of the league there. Evidence of that is in his chase rate. Overall, that rate isn’t much different than his career average—29% this year compared to 28.6% for his career. The big difference, though, is the contact rate on those pitchers. Normally, batters muster a 52.7% contact rate on the pitches they chase from Rodon. This year, though, that number is way down to 40.6%. So while he’s getting guys to chase at a similar rate, he’s gotten them to miss those chases more often.
More grounders. Less contact on chases. More strikeouts. This is all a recipe for success for Rodon. Of course, as we all know given who the pitcher is, it could all fall apart as soon as he steps on the mound again. For now, though, he’s doing a good job and with the absences in the Yankee rotation, that’ll do.