Double Meaning
Evaluating the right plate approach for Anthony Volpe
Despite seeming like a decent enough guy who loves being a Yankee—as well as a good base runner and fielder—Anthony Volpe has become a frustrating player in my eyes, mostly because of his performance at the plate, which tends to trend as follows: two-three hot weeks followed by six-eight absolutely abysmal weeks. In both of his professional seasons, he’s ended up around the same place numbers-wise, despite having two seemingly different approaches in the batter’s box.
In 2023, Volpe had a much more pull power based approach, leading to a 20/20 season—21 HR, 24 SB. In 2024, Volpe opted for a different approach. He pulled the ball less and tried to use all fields, while also cutting down on his strikeouts while keeping up the steals. All told, his batting average jumped up from .209 to .243 and his strikeout rate dropped from 27.8% to 22.6%. If the goal of this approach was to make more contact and hit to more fields, he was definitely successful. However, this doesn’t mean certain things weren’t sacrificed and that there weren’t some flaws in this approach.
In terms of results-based sacrifices, Volpe walked less, dropping from an 8.7% walk rate to 6.1% and his power dropped. Not only did he hit only 12 home runs, his ISO went down from .174 to .121. His overall production dropped slightly as well, resulting in a .287 wOBA in ‘24 after a .290 wOBA in ‘23. But, because league offense was down, his wRC+ was 86 in 2024 as opposed to 82 in 2023. Either way, not great, but his defense and base running buoy his WAR totals.
What’s flawed about this approach is two-pronged: some potentially iffy swing decisions and generally weaker contact. While Volpe’s swing percentage was virtually the same in both seasons—47.9 in 2023 and 48.1 in 2024— his zone contact percentage went up slightly, and his whiff rate dropped almost six percentage points, there were some other things that don’t look too great. His chase rate showed a marginal increase—about one percent—but his chase contact rate jumped up from 49.9% to 61.8%. Making more contact is generally good, but out of zone contact isn’t likely to lead to good results once bat meets ball. The lack of quality contact is also borne out in his percentile ranks in certain categories.
His contact-based expected slugging dropped from the already poor 31st percentile down to the 8th. xISO? 43rd to 8th. Barrel percentage? 55th to 12th. Hard hit percentage? 61st to 23rd. In 2024, his wOBA on contact dropped from .357 to .342, “good” for 103rd out of 129 qualifiers; his 2023 mark was 100th out of 134. Both aren’t good, but 2024 was worse.
There’s a possibility that, given both approaches led to similarly bad results, Anthony Volpe is just not a good hitter, that this is just who he is at the plate regardless of what he tries. However, he’ll still be only 24 for this coming season so there is still plenty of time for him to turn it around. If he’s going to, he needs to pick an approach and stick to it and refine it. That approach should be the one from 2023. It’s great that he made some more contact in 2024, but not all contact is created equally. Hitting the ball harder and aiming for more power is more impactful and a better use of Volpe’s time and talent, especially if combined with his typical defense and base running. There doesn’t even really need to be that big of an improvement for this to drastically change Volpe’s perception and outlook. So long as he can get to league average, he’s likely a 4+ WAR player. Can he do it? I guess we’ll find out.