Considering Carlos

Searching for a first base solution

Over the years, I have been an absolute mark for certain players, both on the Yankees—Chris Britton; Joba Chamberlain; Gary Sanchez; Gleyber Torres—and off—Ben Sheets; Josh Johnson; Adam Dunn; Joc Pederson. That latter list includes a more current player: Carlos Santana.

Long ago (foolishly) traded from the Dodgers to Cleveland for a half-season of Casey Blake, Santana is a former catcher turned first baseman who’s had a steady 15 year career. All told, he’s hit .242/.354/.431 with 324 home runs, good for a .342 wOBA and 116 wRC+. Now, he’s a free agent and the Yankees have a need for a first baseman.

The state of first base in the Bronx is bleaker than bleak. Not a singe player manning fist base hit a home run for the Yankees from August 1st to the ill-fated game 5 of the World Series. Almost anything would be in improvement over 2024’s results at first base (and a lot of 2023’s as well). Certainly, Santana fits that bill. How much and if he’s worth it are the questions.

MLB Trade Rumors didn’t list Santana as one of their top 50 free agents, so they don’t have a contract prediction for him. However, ESPN and FanGraphs have the following projections: 1/$13M and 1/$9M. Per Cot’s the Yankees are currently looking at a projected CBT payroll of $260,615,667, well over the $241M threshold. Adding Santana at the median of those two projections—$11M—wouldn’t really do anything but add to the Yankees’ luxury tax bill, which I really don’t care about. What matters more is the length, especially considering Santana’s age; he’ll be 39 just after Opening Day, so a one year deal is really all he should expect to get. Just about any one year deal is worth it.

At the very least, Santana represents a more frugal option at first than fellow free agents Christian Walker and Pete Alonso, projected for 3/$60M and 5/$125 respectively by MLBTR. They are also younger and, frankly, better than Carlos Santana. But, a shorter deal and switch-hitter status might make Santana attractive to the Yankees.

Last season, Santana hit to a 114 wRC+, his best since putting up a 138 wRC+ in 2019 with Cleveland. Between then and now, he’s been closer to a league average hitter, hitting marks of 99, 81, 102, and 100. It’s steady, if unspectacular. Again, though, steady if unspectacular would be a huge upgrade for the Yankees.

Under the hood, Santana’s walk and strikeout rates were on course with his career numbers and so were his ISO and BABIP. His statcast numbers were more or less in line with his career numbers, too. There was quite a jump in wRC+, but that could be explained by league-wide offense declining a bit since Santana’s wOBA went up only three points. Regardless, the shape of his production from 2024 doesn’t raise many red flags, save for his age, which means he could, conceivably, fall off and it wouldn’t be much of a surprise.

Being a switch hitter is a point in favor of Santana, but the issue here is that he’s better from the right side of the plate than the left. Signing a veteran free agent to the short side probably isn’t going to happen, especially with said veteran coming off a good year. In a vacuum, this might not be much of an issue considering the incumbent-by-default first baseman, Ben Rice, is a lefty hitter and having a platoon partner for him could be nice. However, since neither Santana or Rice really play another position, that isn’t too desirable. Signing Santana would most likely mean giving him the starting job and trading or otherwise delaying Ben Rice.

The pluses for Santana are clear: a short term contract for relatively low money; filling a position of need; an upgrade at that position of need; and relatively predictable outcomes at the plate. The minuses are also clear in that he’s old and not a great, or even very good player.

I first started writing this on Tuesday afternoon before the Cody Bellinger trade (great trade!) and my original thought was that I’d be inclined to say the Yankees should sign Carlos Santana, but with a caveat. He can’t be the move offensively. He’s fine as a complementary piece, so long as another bat—an impact bat—was also acquired by some other means. Bellinger has the potential to be an impact bat. If the Yankees decide to deploy him at first, then Santana obviously isn’t a fit. If they decide to play Bellinger in center, then Santana could be a fit if the Yankees don’t want to go big on another hitter.