How the Yankees’ farm system looks after a stagnant deadline

So the Yankees didn’t make any Major League trades yesterday. Some of that was circumstance and high asking prices, but I think it also reflects on certain parts of the Yankees’ farm system.

Here are my thoughts/notes on the system, the deadline and more:

1. The Yankees’ system didn’t take the step forward everyone expected: Going into the season, Baseball America had the Yankees ranked as the No. 20 system in baseball. That was the general consensus: Not the worst system, but clearly not in the upper echelon.

However, with plenty of young, talented players, primarily pitchers, in the lower minors, the Yankees’ farm system was projected to move up as those pitchers did.

Instead, most of the system stagnated or slowed, giving the team very little upper minors depth from which to deal. They’re now No. 21 on BA. As much as one would love to just trade a bunch of Low-A and rookie-ball players for Marcus Stroman, the Blue Jays and Mets rightfully would want something more than a lottery ticket.

That isn’t to say there haven’t been some risers. Deivi Garcia and Luis Gil are great examples even despite Deivi’s rough Triple-A debut. They both give the Yankees a chance to have a homegrown talent in the rotation soon.

Thinking back to that beautiful Futures Game

However, the upper minors remain barren. Just eight of BA’s Yankees Top 30 prospects at midseason were at Double-A or higher. Thairo Estrada, at No. 22, is the highest-ranked position player above High-A. That obviously doesn’t include Clint Frazier, who is still prospect-y and can help team from Triple-A. Furthermore, the team doesn’t need much offensive help at the MLB level right now, though there’s still little from which to trade.

2. The Harvey trade and 40-man crunch: The one trade the Yankees did make was for LHP Alfredo Garcia of the Rockies in exchange for RHP Joe Harvey. Garcia just turned 20 and is in full-season ball for the first time. He has an ugly 6.28 ERA with 109 hits, 11 homers and 38 walks in 90.1 IP, though he’s fanned 103 batters. Surely, the Yankees see something more than those first few numbers suggest.

But this deal is indicative of the Yankees’ roster situation. As Fangraphs detailed in recent days, the Yankees are one of many teams in an upcoming 40-man roster crunch. Harvey is the first casualty. The Bombers have had to make many trades of a similar ilk in recent seasons with players like James Pazos, Caleb Smith and Garrett Cooper. Funny enough, Zack Littell was acquired for Pazos, then dealt instead of being added to the 40-man a year later.

The Yankees have had success on their end of these deals, adding Gil (in the Tyler Austin/Lance Lynn trade last year) and Michael King (for Smith/Cooper), though the latter trade doesn’t look quite as good in retrospect.

The point being: The Yankees exchanged a 40-man player they’d have otherwise likely non-tendered for a younger player a few years from Rule 5 eligibility. There will be a few more trades like that this offseason (or in August with non-40-man players) and some players exposed to the Rule 5 draft.

3. Don’t forget about recent graduations and trades: When evaluating a team’s MiLB system in a snapshot, it’s easy to forget about the recent past. The Yankees have gotten a lot out of their farm system.

Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, Domingo German and Frazier, plus Nestor Cortes Jr., are recent graduations from the farm system to help the big league team stay afloat the last couple seasons. They wouldn’t be on pace to win 100+ games for the second straight season without them. (Again, that doesn’t even include Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez and Luis Severino).

The Yankees already used plenty of prospect depth: The Yankees have been active at the previous few trade deadlines and offseasons, dealing over a dozen prospects for Sonny Gray, J.A. Happ, James Paxton, Tommy Kahnle and others.

Plenty of those players dealt, as I wrote about earlier this year, haven’t been good enough in their new homes for the Yankees to regret trading them. Some also would have been 40-man roster casualties.

But all of that adds up to players the Yankees can no longer trade, chips already cashed in. They still have some, or had some in relation to yesterday, but some of their depth was no longer free to trade.

Florial with a very good boy! (@TampaTarpons on Twitter)

4. Injuries and Florial’s step back hurting team: Part of why the Yankees’ farm system hasn’t taken a step forward is the ole injury bug. 2018 draft picks Josh Breaux and Anthony Seigler are both on the IL with Breaux dealing with an arm issue after an impressive beginning to his South Atlantic League season. Seigler, meanwhile, didn’t hit when healthy but was also delayed by injuries this year and likely has been banged up for all of his first full pro season.

The Yankees’ top Triple-A pitching prospect, Michael King, just made it to Triple-A yesterday after an arm injury kept him out for 3+ months. That’s a killer. If he’d continued on his trajectory from 2018, he could have helped the Major League roster by midseason or been a useful trade chip.

Furthermore, Garrett Whitlock was one of this season’s risers as a former 16th-round pick, but now he needs Tommy John surgery after showing well in Trenton.

However, Estevan Florial’s season has to be the most disappointing. The Yankees’ only consensus top 100 prospect going into the year, Florial suffered a significant injury for the second straight year: A dislocated wrist during Spring Training.

The injury kept him out until June, and he hasn’t found his swing since. In fact, he’s taken a step back from his 110 wRC+ with High-A Tampa last year. Repeating the level, he’s batting just .227/.277/.343 with an 85 wRC+. His walk rate has been halved and his strikeout rate is back up to concerning levels (34.7 percent).

Back-to-back years with hand injuries has made it so he hasn’t shown much power in 2018 or ’19. Still, he’s just 21 years old and will be 22 next year. The Yankees will still add him to the 40-man roster, or be able to use him in trade. However, his value has diminished significantly from top-prospect status.

5. A closer look at a few full-season pitchers: We got an email this week about Clarke Schmidt, and then he promptly figured into the Yankees’ failed Robbie Ray pursuit. While BA has him at No. 16 on their Yankees list, the right-hander is No. 11 on Fangraphs’ big board and is all the way to No. 5 for MLB.com.

The Yankees’ first-round pick in 2017 (No. 16 overall), Schmidt has pitched sparingly in the Minors. He was selected despite having undergone Tommy John surgery just before the draft and he’s dealt with injuries since turning pro. Still, the 23-year-old college arm has had a strong season.

In 53.1 IP for High-A Tampa, he has a 3.38 ERA (2.97 FIP) with 56 strikeouts to 19 walks, allowing just two home runs. Between his injuries and 6-foot-1 stature, some evaluators believe he’s ticketed for the bullpen long-term. Still, he has a future in the org.

Meanwhile, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention Miguel Yajure. The 21-year-old has a 2.06 ERA with Tampa while keeping the ball onto the ground. Unlike Schmidt, he’s been able to go full-tilt this year a few seasons removed from TJ surgery, throwing a career-high 109.1 IP so far this year. He doesn’t overpower with his fastball-changeup combo, but he’s shown enough to get 40-man consideration after the year.

Finally, Albert Abreu is No. 7 on both MLB.com and BA, though Fangraphs has him at No. 20. The soon-to-be 24-year-old has struggled to find the plate consistently but is still able to get outs anyway, unlike fellow Yankees prospect Luis Medina, who has an ERA and BB/9 above 6.8. Abreu could be feeling the roster crunch this offseason as he’s already on the 40-man.

6. Brief notes on Canaan Smith and Kyle Holder: I really like Canaan Smith. As a 20-year-old in Single-A, he’s batting .317/.415/.474 with a 158 wRC+ and a walk rate (14.3 percent) just 6.4 percent lower than his K rate. At this point, he’s shown all he can in Charleston.

However, the question with Smith isn’t just his bat. As a corner outfielder, the question is whether he can hit enough to justify his place at a lesser position in the Majors. The Yankees have plenty of outfield depth in the Majors right now, though plenty can change by the time Smith would be ready.

Kyle Holder, meanwhile, has been one of Double-A Trenton’s best hitters with a .278/.335/.434 batting line and 124 wRC+ this year. He’s good at putting his bat on the ball and already was a wizard with the glove. His future as a middle infielder in the Majors looks brighter than it did a year ago.

7. Recent picks showing off in Pulaski, Staten Island: As the last point, just want to point out some of the good hitting going on in the low Minors for the Yankees. I’m of the belief that you can judge most pitching prospects until they get at least to Single-A, so I’ll hold off on T.J. Sikkema’s strong debut for now.

But Anthony Volpe and Josh Smith have gotten off to good starts. Volpe didn’t hit for about a month — He is, after all, an 18-year-old, playing pro ball — but he’s started to find his swing and he’s raised his wRC+ to 98 after being about half that a few weeks ago. Best part is his walks as he posts a 14.6 percent walk rate. Smith only debuted a week ago after signing later. Still, it’s hard not to like how he’s walked five times and struck out just once in Staten Island.

Meanwhile, keep an eye on Chad Bell, Ryder Green and Ezequiel Duran at those same levels. Bell, a 19-round pick out of college, has a 146 wRC+ thus far, though also sports a 32.8 percent K rate, while Green (138 wRC+) and Duran (164 wRC+) have taken real steps forward as they repeat the low minors.

Previous

Assorted Thoughts After the Yankees Make No Moves At The Deadline

Next

DoTF: Brian Keller tosses no-hitter to begin Trenton twin bill

6 Comments

  1. BRUCE E. SMIRNOFF

    Great work thank you!!

  2. Jacob

    Great piece, really appreciate your work.

  3. Dan A.

    Still so mad about yesterday.

  4. lightSABR

    I should change my handle to A Rare Kyle Holder Fan.

  5. Top_Prospect

    Great article! Does this foreshadow an upcoming Viewsfrom314ft Top 30 Yankees Prospect List? Because that would be awesome!

    • Steven Tydings

      We hope to have one at some point, though it’ll probably have to wait for the offseason. But stay tuned!

Powered by WordPress & Theme by Anders Norén