Back in June, I took a look at the fact that Wells’ walk rate had plummeted and things didn’t really improve from there. His overall walk rate in 2025 was just 6.7, a drop of nearly five full percentage points while his strikeout rate rose to 26.3% overall, up from 21% in 2024. To his credit, he did balance the rise in strikeouts with a rise in power. Despite a low .219 batting average, Wells still managed to slug .436, good for a .217 ISO. For reference, that ISO was fifth among all catchers with at least 400 PA. If we adjust to performance as a catcher, so not including DH, PH, or other positional opportunities, his ISO actually goes up to .219, 4th among all catchers. I think we can live with a catcher hitting for that much power pretty much no matter what. However, that doesn’t preclude Wells from improving his walk rate and beefing up that ghastly .275 OBP.

Of course, the other usual caveat for a catcher applies: defense first. Wells is still a good defender, rated the fourth best framer in the Majors by FanGraphs. As long as he’s doing that, the Yankees can and will live with whatever offense he puts out, especially if there’s power in the approach. But a .275 OBP is a .275 OBP and Wells needs to improve that.

In the June post, I noted that Wells’ chase rate jumped up and that stayed consistent throughout the year. Overall, he chased at a rate of 29.3%. Unsurprisingly, Wells was unproductive on those pitches he chased, racking up a .080 wOBA (but an xwOBA of .096!). This would be the case for just about anyone, but it seems like an easy fix to help some of his production issues: avoid chasing so much!

Wells’ chase rate on offspeed pitches stayed relatively even from ‘24 to ‘25, but both breaking balls and fastballs saw a big jump in chase rate, which fueled the overall high chase rate. Recognizing those pitches better in 2026 will help him improve and make him even more valuable.

Of course we have to acknowledge that Wells made a big jump in first pitch swing percentage in 2025 from 2024, and overall, it was successful: a .496 wOBA. To me, that shows a concerted effort to change his approach a bit to prioritize power over patience. I get it, and it has value, but I can’t help but wonder if Wells and the Yankees would be better served if he found the more balanced approach he showed in 2024. Will Wells turn back the clock with some walks? Hopefully.

While we were waiting on line outside the stadium to be allowed back in for running, I pulled up the Yankee game on my phone. My nine year old, Ryan, then a newly minted fan of the game said, as Ben Rice came to the plate with the bases loaded against the Orioles, “Wouldn’t it be cool if Ben Rice hit a grand slam?” You know what happened next. That game-winning home run was one of 26 for Rice in 2025, an undoubtedly successful first full season in MLB. In addition to the home runs, Rice hit .255/.337/.499, with an .836 OPS (131 OPS+) and a .358 wOBA (133 wRC+) with strong numbers under the hood. Poised to be the current and future first baseman for the Yankees, Rice will look to improve on those numbers even more in 2026. Let’s see where he could use it.

Admittedly, there aren’t a ton of places to look. His raw numbers were good; his walk rate was nearly 10% and his strikeout rate was below 20%. All his under-the-hood contact numbers at Baseball Savant were in at least the 65th percentile, except for walk rate (63rd). After a little more perusing,one thing caught my eye: an increased whiff rate against breaking pitches.

In 2025, Rice saw a breaking ball at about a 33% clip, an increase from his brief 2024 (29.7%). Overall, Rice had a 36.6% whiff rate against breaking pitches. It jumped big from 2024 (25.5) overall; 20.5 to 23.4 in the zone; and 40 to 61.5% outside the zone. Now, on the plus side, this didn’t lead to a total lack of production against breaking balls. While he only hit .207 against them in 85 batted ball events, he made that .207 count. His SLG was .437 (.230 ISO) and he had a .330 wOBA, so there were positives even with the swing and miss. My worry, though, isn’t about 2025’s production, but what will happen going forward.

If teams exploit this without an adjustment from Rice, it could hinder production in 2026. We’re all aware of the stagnation some Yankee hitting prospects have experienced at the Major League level and we obviously don’t want that to happen with Rice. Do I think it will? Probably not, but this is an area where Rice can improve to take that next step.

The first place I thought to look upon seeing this drop in walk rate was Wells’ chase rate. If he’s walking less, surely he must be chasing pitches out of the zone more often. Indeed he is. His 2025 chase rate of 29.4% is up from his 2024 mark of 25.5, just shy of four percent. This has been fueled by a big time increase in chasing offspeed pitches from 30.4% to 41.8%. The explanation here is pretty neat and tidy: a 4% increase in chase and a 5% drop in walk rate. There was something else that caught my eye, though: an increase in first pitch swing percentage.

In 2024, Wells offered at the first pitch 33.8% of the time. So far in 2025, that number has jumped way up to 40%. This also pairs with an overall increase in contact rate of about 5%. Again, there’s a logical thread here. More contact in general and more first pitch swings logically lead to first pitch contact or first pitch strikes, both of which could work to reduce a player’s walk rate. On the bright side, there is a tradeoff happening with Wells regarding the first pitch.

Swinging at the first pitch more may be contributing to a drop in walk rate, but when he’s swinging at those first pitches, he’s making an impact. On first pitch swings, Wells’ wOBA this year is .550. Last year, it was merely .305. This trend is mirrored in his overall numbers in two ways: his wOBA in zone and his season ISO. The latter is at .216, a big jump from last year. When Wells is hitting the ball, he’s doing damage. His in zone wOBA has also jumped up from .321 in 2024 to .345 in 2025.

So far, Wells has leaned more into a power stroke than a patient approach at the plate. That doesn’t mean that the patience is completely gone, though. This low number is certainly an outlier for him, both in terms of his brief Major League career and his past minor league performance. Given that, his walk rate could rebound as we go further into the 2025 season. If not, it might be alright if he continues with the powerful approach he seems to have taken, especially paired with his strong defense. Either wall, I trust all will be well(s) with Austin.

For the Yankees’ third year shortstop, it’s not uncommon to have a few scorching weeks followed by many more that would make even the Arctic Circle blush. That happened in 2023 and it happened again in 2024, despite different approaches. 2025 has seen more of the same, albeit with a slightly different flavor.

Overall, this has been Volpe’s most successful year at the plate. With a 9.1% BB rate and a .180 ISO–both career highs in their own right–he came into Monday’s action against the Reds with career highs with a .320 wOBA and a 105 wRC+. For years, I’ve said that all Volpe needs to do to be a very valuable player is to be a league average hitter. Pair that with his defense at short and his base running, and that’s a borderline all-star level player.

There are also some under the hood numbers that point the right way, too. For example, Volpe is crushing four seamers this year, +10 runs. His hard hit percentage is up 8 points from where it was last year. His barrel percentage is up to where it was in 2023 as well, a year in which he was trying to hit the ball with more authority. Additionally, his chase rate is in the 80th percentile. So, are we done with the inconsistency? No. No we’re not.

For all those positives, there are some red-ish flags that could be cause for concern. One such example is that per Statcast, Volpe’s 5.5% weak contact rate is the worst of his career. Despite doing so much damage against fastballs, he’s also whiffing at around 30% on them. His rate of pulling balls in the air–just about the best thing a hitter can do, process-wise–is in the blue on Statcast. Then, there’s the hot and cold thing.

The numbers going into Monday’s game were, as previously stated, good. But there’s a problem. The same problem we started off with. They are buoyed by a hot first month that Volpe hasn’t been able to keep up or repeat since.

In March and April, Volpe hit .237/.328/.486 with a .342 wOBA and 120 wRC+. That may have even undersold how he was doing, given his xwOBA was a bit higher at .352. He was barreling up the ball pretty well: 11/3 Barrels/batted ball event and 6.9 Barrels/PA. His hard hit rate was 47.5% and he had an average exit velo of 91.8 MPH. Since the calendar turned to May, though, things haven’t gone as well.

Since May 1, he’s hitting .236/297/.401 with a .304 wOBA and 94 wRC+. His xwOBA has been .288 in that time and he’s shed some hard contact, down to 39.5% with his exit velocity dropping to 87.5. He’s barreling the ball less on a batted ball event basis–7.6–and a per PA basis–5.1. Now, to be fair to Volpe here, a 94 wRC+ is fine for a shortstop. And considering the cold streaks he had at times in 2023 and 2024, this is actually pretty good as far as cold streaks go. If he were to hit like this over the course of a full season with his typical defense (94th percentile for OAA in 2024, 78th in 2023), that would, again, be a very valuable player. But something funny happened on the way to the forum.

Volpe hasn’t been successful stealing bases this year. He has 8 total, but he’s been caught 7 times, which matches his total from 2024, when he stole 28 bases. An 8/15 SB rate in 2025, with bigger bases and limited pickoff attempts, is pitiful, especially for someone as fast as Volpe who’s been a good base stealer in the past. More concerning, though, is that his range is down to the 46th percentile, below average. If Volpe is going to put up below average offensive numbers and not back it up with good base running and defense, what are the Yankees to do?

Well, I think it's easy to know what they’re going to do. Even with Volpe going into arbitration for 2026, he’s still going to be relatively cheap. But is this enough? Is this really what the Yankees wanted out of Volpe? I think it’s safe to say they had bigger expectations for him than what he’s been so far. Almost three years in now, Volpe is running out of time to turn a corner and be something else. The Yankees have, more or less, painted themselves into a corner with Volpe, having passed on multiple free agent shortstops in his favor and not really having anyone backing him up who could give him a run for his money. Volpe’s story is far from fully written, but the ink is starting to dry up.

Despite an ugly slash line of .178/.300/.406, his .316 wOBA and 106 wRC+ are in line with his career norms. Behind that is a career high walk rate—over 12%—and a near-career high ISO (.228). His strikeout rate is also a career high (30%), but there’s more good than bad here, even with a ghastly BABIP of .186. Given that, the walks, and the power, it’s likely that Chisholm’s batting line looks good sooner rather than later. Before we get to that, let’s take a look at why that BABIP is so low.

The “culprit” is pretty easy to identify. Thus far, Jazz is rocking a career low ground ball rate. The corollary to that is a career high percentage of balls in the air, right? And that’s just what Jazz has done. Fewer grounders plus more balls in the air equals a lower BABIP. Sometimes, weak contact can aid in this and there’s a bit of evidence that might point such a way. The percentage of balls Chisholm has gotten under is way up, a career high 34.8%. In turn, his pop up rate is at 12.1%, something he hasn’t even sniffed since his debut season (16.1) with marks between 4.3-6.3 from 2021-24. This is also reflected in his launch angle, which at 18.3 is his highest ever. Still, weak contact doesn’t seem to e at ‘fault” here given that Jazz also has a career high barrel percentage. There also appears to be some intentionality behind Jazz’s 2025 contact numbers.

Let’s start with what he’s not swinging at before we get into what’s happening when he makes contact. Two things stand out here: a career low chase rate and a second lowest in-zone swing percentage. Combined, these two bits suggest that Jazz is both staying in the zone and being selective in the zone. He has a plan. he wants to do something with the ball when it meets his bat. And so far, he has.

First, we have the aforementioned barrel rate. Second, we have the fact that Chisholm is pulling the ball in the air at his second highest clip ever. All of that said, a strategy has emerged. Jazz wants to hit the ball hard, put it in the air and to the pull side. That’s what he’s been doing so far and if he keeps doing it, that batting line will improve.

As of right now, Rodon has a 3.50 ERA and a 3.83 FIP, good for a 90 ERA- and a 93 FIP-, both of which would be top three in his career and easily his best with the Yankees. Another near career best is his strikeout rate, sitting at 31.5%. This being Carlos Rodon, though, there are some warts.

His HR/FB rates are high and his BB% is also a career high. His strand rate is way down from last year, though it’s about his career norm and is way up from the disastrous 2023.

So, with all that, what’s led him to have those seemingly good numbers?

A big factor has been his increased ground ball percentage. Right now, it’s sitting at a career high—48.8%— and each pitch has seen an increase in ground ball percentage. Two pitchers are notable here: the slider and the changeup. His slider is up to over 52% for grounders, which would be a great compliment to a pitch that already gets lots of whiffs. His changeup’s GB% is just over 72% as well, which is more or less the point of the pitch. Add in that he’s using it his highest rate in five years and the changeup could be a legitimate weapon. Aside from the grounders, though, there’s something else I wanted to look at: Rodon’s work around the zone.

A pitcher’s approach in and around the zone is an obvious place to look, but there was something that stood out to me regarding his chase rates and where he’s putting the ball. First, Rodon is at +5 runs in the shadow of the zone per Statcast, which puts him in the top-15 of the league there. Evidence of that is in his chase rate. Overall, that rate isn’t much different than his career average—29% this year compared to 28.6% for his career. The big difference, though, is the contact rate on those pitchers. Normally, batters muster a 52.7% contact rate on the pitches they chase from Rodon. This year, though, that number is way down to 40.6%. So while he’s getting guys to chase at a similar rate, he’s gotten them to miss those chases more often.

More grounders. Less contact on chases. More strikeouts. This is all a recipe for success for Rodon. Of course, as we all know given who the pitcher is, it could all fall apart as soon as he steps on the mound again. For now, though, he’s doing a good job and with the absences in the Yankee rotation, that’ll do.

The little bit of truth is that despite these losses–actualized and impending in Stanton’s case–the American League does not project to be especially strong. Even a diminished Yankee roster can compete in this field overall and on the division level, too. While the Red Sox made some good moves, there are questions in Boston just like there are in New York. Further south, the Orioles stagnated at best and seem to have, once again, failed to take advantage of their window and standing. The Jays and Rays, while not at the fore of our minds, are still projected close to the rest of the division. Indeed, the FanGraphs playoff odds projections, as I write this at around 11 AM on March 12, have all five teams separated by just under five total games. Similarly, Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections have the Yankees at 85 wins and the gap between the AL East winner and trailer as only nine games, the smallest projected gap in the league. While the Yankees have a small margin for error, so do the other four teams in the division.

The other small bit of truth is that there is still talent on the Yankee roster. Max Fried is a good pitcher. Carlos Rodon should and could be a good pitcher. Clarke Schmidt proved that he belongs in a Major League rotation. The bullpen added one of the best closers in the game in Devin Williams and has strong arms otherwise to back him up, including the emergent Luke Weaver. Aaron Judge is still Aaron Judge. Jazz Chisholm, Jr. could do tons of damage in a full season at Yankee Stadium. Austin Wells (leadoff hitter) is a legitimate Major League bat. There certainly is a lot of “if” in the lineup (Anthony Volpe, Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt, the entirety of third base) but there is talent.

It’s difficult to do so right now, but if you squint–and you don’t have to squint too hard–you can see the Yankees still making the playoffs despite the losses they’ve suffered. Replacing Gerrit Cole is damn near impossible, but the circumstances in the American League may be just right enough that the Yankees could be alright in 2025.

Can i sit here as I’m writing this and say these positive things, ten toes down and with my whole chest? No. But feeling hopeless before a real pitch is thrown sucks. So for now, despite looming doubts, I’m choosing to believe.

As of today, the Yankees’ projected 2025 payroll plus luxury tax bill is roughly $26 million lower than last year. Meanwhile, the club is still looking to cut costs, primarily to get out of the top luxury tax tier. It’s no secret that Marcus Stroman, who’s owed $18.5 million this year, is on the trade block. Even if the Yankees are merely looking to reallocate the money due to Stroman, we’re still talking about a slash in team payroll. After a World Series run, with all possible home gates, no less. Pretty frustrating, I must say.

Some numbers: According to Cot's Contracts, the Yankees’ estimated final 2024 payroll (total dollars, not for luxury tax purposes) was approximately $310 million. Tack on the luxury tax payment, and the total outlay reaches around $373 million. For 2025, Cot’s has the Yankees sitting at $283 million in payroll and $43 million in tax, totaling $326 million. However, that figure doesn’t include Max Fried’s signing bonus payment of $20 million due this month, so let’s bring the grand total for 2025 to $346M.

In no world do I expect any team, let alone the Yankees, to slash its expenditures after a deep postseason run. Sure, Soto’s departure changed this winter’s approach. But to cut expenses by this much while looking for more savings? Ick.

Maybe you want to give the Yankees some benefit of the doubt, given that the tax payments do nothing to actually improve the team. I can appreciate that, to a degree. Ignoring the tax, we’re looking at a $310 million to $303 million swing. It’s still a payroll cut after winning a pennant, with up to $18.5 million more in savings coming (though likely not that whole amount, or perhaps particularly close). Any way you slice it, the Yankees are shaving costs after a season that almost certainly had better financial results than any year in recent memory.

For reference, The Dodgers have gone from an estimated $326 million in 2024 to a projected $367 million payroll this year. Yes, they won it all. Yes, LA’s ownership group is significantly wealthier than Hal Steinbrenner and his partners. But this is what we should want out of any ownership group after a pennant or championship win.

Curtailing payroll is nothing new for the Yankees. You likely recall Plan 189, or how the Yankees trimmed payroll by about $30 million after 2017, or how no team should need a $200 million payroll to win a World Series (now $300 million, as Hal has so kindly adjusted). To be clear, it’s true that a team doesn’t need to spend $300 million to win it all. It’s rich when it comes from the owner of the Yankees, though.

And look, I get that the league’s financial environment has changed. Hal’s wealthy because of the Yankees, not because of something else in his life. He’s the managing partner of the team, not outright owner, meaning he doesn’t have the same stake as, say, Steve Cohen. Steinbrenner likely can’t spend as freely as other clubs, and certainly isn’t in the same stratosphere in terms of personal wealth as others.

Still, Hal has shown that he can compete with the Dodgers and Mets with payrolls in the $300 million range. With that being the case, why cut payroll at this juncture? Just because of the luxury tax? I get that the tax seems unfair when other owners’ investments into their clubs are laughable, but damn. It’s too late to change things now, unless the Yankees surprisingly pivot to Alex Bregman. There are no other free agents that fit the roster who are going to get a big payday.

I’m sure I’m coming off as a spoiled or entitled Yankees fan. I know a lot of other fanbases have it worse. Still, it feels like fair game to complain about trimming payroll following a World Series appearance.

Last season presented a similar problem, but Gleyber Torres eventually solved that. With him gone, the Yankees have to find someone else to do the job. Twenty years ago or more, the answer to this question might have been easy. Anthony Volpe is a fast, slap-hitting guy (kind of?) who steals bases, so he would be the leadoff hitter. Luckily, times have changed. Additionally, the Yankees tried that and it didn’t really work. Until he proves otherwise, which wouldn’t be until later in the year anyway, Volpe isn’t a valid option for leadoff hitter.

Who is a valid option, then? I see three viable candidates: Jazz Chisholm, Jr.; Aaron Judge; and Austin Wells. Each player has reasons for and against, so let’s run them down and see if one emerges as a better choice than the others.

I suppose we should lay out what the Yankees need out of a leadoff hitter. First and foremost is on-base ability, preferably through a combination of average and walks. Part of that is seeing a lot of pitches, both to work the pitcher and give the next hitters a look at what the pitcher is working with in that particular game. This may be a touch old school, but leadoff hitters, generally speaking, should probably avoid strikeouts, though that’s easily mitigated by walks and power. Also old school would be an emphasis on speed and base-stealing ability. While not a complete necessity, a little power out of the leadoff spot is nice, too. The three candidates for the leadoff spot check all these boxes in one way or another, though Wells and Judge aren’t going to do anything flashy on the bases (though Judge did have 10 steals last season).

The league average walk rate is just over 8% and Judge and Wells clear that easily. Chisholm fell short of it in his time with the Yankees–7.3–but it was over 8 for the whole season, including his time with the Marlins. Jazz’s walk rate is a bit of a seesaw:

2020: 8.1 (62 PA)

2021: 6.7 (507 PA)

2022: 8.7 (241 PA)

2023: 6.8 (383 PA)

2024: 8.5 (621 PA)

He does, however, make up for it by having solid power (.197 career ISO; 2024 league average was .156) and good base stealing ability; he swiped 40 last year and has a career SB% of about 78%. That number was higher in 2024 (80) and in 2023 (88) and is a little weighed down by relatively poor percentages from 2020-22. This all points to a pretty good case for Jazz to be the leadoff hitter. He walks just enough, has the necessary speed, and adds a little bit of pop. Of course, the flip side is that the walk rate is a little inconsistent and his strikeout rate is a bit of a red flag for a leadoff hitter coming in at 27.6 for his career. However, he did lower that to 24.5 in 2024, a marked improvement. That’s also only about 2% off the league average rate of 22.6, an acceptable mark. As an added plus, Chisholm saw 4.02 pitches per plate appearance in 2024, just above the league average of 3.88.

Austin Wells knows how to take a walk and seems to know what he’s doing at the plate. Those alone make him a good candidate for leadoff hitter and he has just enough pop–.167 ISO–to be dangerous. He will definitely not run like Jazz would, but he’s a more likely on-base threat, which could be more valuable. Like Jazz, though, he saw an above average number of P/PA at 3.95. On the human side of the game, though, it might be a tough ask for the catcher to be the leadoff hitter, just from a wear and tear and preparation standpoint.

There’s not much of a need to make a case for Aaron Judge to be the leadoff hitter. He’s one of the top three hitters in the game and getting him the most plate appearances on the team is so obviously valuable that it’s not really worth expanding on. There are two potential drawbacks. The first is that you could argue Judge’s power would be wasted in the leadoff spot. Given what the bottom of the order will look like, it’s hard to imagine Judge having a lot of runners on base when he comes to the plate after the first inning. On the flip side, though, he will be on base plenty for the 2-5 hitters when they come up to the plate and that could boost their performance since that’s where protection really comes from. The other wrinkle is that Judge might not want to do it. He was game to bat lead off in 2022 when chasing the AL home run record, but was adamant about preferring to hit third in 2023, even though the more optimal lineup would’ve put him second behind a leadoff hitting Juan Soto.

In (somewhat of) a vacuum, I think I would go with Wells as the leadoff hitter. I believe in his approach and think his on-base ability would be slightly more valuable than Jazz’s speed. If, however, Judge wants to hit first, he should hit first. Assuming that doesn’t happen, here is how I would lay out the lineup:

1. Austin Wells, C

2. Aaron Judge, RF

3. Jazz Chisholm, 3B

4. Giancarlo Stanton, DH

5. Cody Bellinger, CF/LF

6. Paul Goldschmdit, 1B

7. Jasson Dominguez, CF/LF

8. Anthony Volpe, SS

9. Whoever the second baseman is going to be

Assuming Jazz will be the leadoff hitter–which I think is the way the Yankees will do it–I’d go with this lineup:

1. Jazz

2. Judge

3. Bellinger

4. Stanton

5. Wells

6. Goldschmidt

7. Dominguez

8. Volpe

9. Second baseman

If Judge were to do it:

1. Judge

2. Jazz

3. Stanton

4. Wells

5. Bellinger

6. Goldschmidt

7. Dominguez

8. Volpe

9. Second baseman

These seem to make sense based on my own internal logic and vibes, but I’m just an unretired blogger, not a Yankee staffer. Though I do have reservations about how this lineup might perform in 2025, seeing all these options laid out, I like what I see more than I thought I would. It’s well-balanced and there’s a lot of “if” in there, but given the state of the American League, this could be a very successful offense.

2024 was an overall success for Wells as evidenced by the ROY finish and his stats: .317 wOBA; 105 wRC+; 13 HR, 3.4 fWAR). Wells also showed an improved approach over his 2023 debut and that's where I see room for growth and even more success going forward.

Wells finished the 2024 season with an 11.4% walk rate, good for the 89th percentile per Statcast. This alone would be encouraging but there are underlying numbers that indicate Wells’ solid approach at the plate. In 2024, he saw a slightly higher number of pitches in the zone than he did in 2023: 49.9 to 48.0. He dropped his in-zone swing rate by over five percent, which may seem negative on its face, but his contact rate on pitches in the zone was virtually the same. This suggests that Wells isn’t going up there looking to swing at anything in the zone. Instead, he seems to be entering the batter’s box with a plan, looking for his pitch in the zone, not just any pitch in the zone. Further evidence comes from other indicators. First is a drop in his first pitch swing percentage: 38.7 to 33.8; again, he’s not just up there hacking at the first good ball he sees. Second, there’s Wells’ experience with pitches labeled as meatballs. Despite seeing fewer of them in 2024 (marginally)--7.3% compared to 8.1%--he swung at a higher percentage of them: 83.2% compared to 79.2% in 2023. Numbers like this tell us that Wells knows what pitches to go after, even if he’s swinging less overall. As a cherry on top, Wells dropped his chase rate from 37.0% to 25.5%. Smart in the zone, not chasing. That’s the good stuff.

The way that process could mean better results is fairly simple. With essentially a full season’s worth of plate appearances and an already good approach, he can pair those things to result in even better contact and an improved batting line. That is a general idea, but there's a more specific one Wells can attack.

Aside from the aforementioned in-zone improvements, Wells also dropped his in-zone whiff rate overall from by about 1% overall. That doesn’t tell the complete story, though, as we can see below:

Wells’ in-zone whiff rate against fastballs jumped. A lot. If he can improve his contact rate against them, we can reasonably assume better results. Last year, when Wells made contact with fastballs, had a .369 wOBA with an xwOBA of .382. Just a small improvement there could go a long way making Wells even better in 2025. Given the way Wells works at the plate and other underlying and surface metrics, this doesn’t seem like too much of a stretch.

Austin Wells has already proved himself a competent Major League player. He did so with his performance at the plate in 2024 as well as behind it, surprising everyone with great defense. If Wells can take the next step after establishing a mature approach as a batter, he can reach all-star status.

In 2023, Volpe had a much more pull power based approach, leading to a 20/20 season—21 HR, 24 SB. In 2024, Volpe opted for a different approach. He pulled the ball less and tried to use all fields, while also cutting down on his strikeouts while keeping up the steals. All told, his batting average jumped up from .209 to .243 and his strikeout rate dropped from 27.8% to 22.6%. If the goal of this approach was to make more contact and hit to more fields, he was definitely successful. However, this doesn’t mean certain things weren’t sacrificed and that there weren’t some flaws in this approach.

In terms of results-based sacrifices, Volpe walked less, dropping from an 8.7% walk rate to 6.1% and his power dropped. Not only did he hit only 12 home runs, his ISO went down from .174 to .121. His overall production dropped slightly as well, resulting in a .287 wOBA in ‘24 after a .290 wOBA in ‘23. But, because league offense was down, his wRC+ was 86 in 2024 as opposed to 82 in 2023. Either way, not great, but his defense and base running buoy his WAR totals.

What’s flawed about this approach is two-pronged: some potentially iffy swing decisions and generally weaker contact. While Volpe’s swing percentage was virtually the same in both seasons—47.9 in 2023 and 48.1 in 2024— his zone contact percentage went up slightly, and his whiff rate dropped almost six percentage points, there were some other things that don’t look too great. His chase rate showed a marginal increase—about one percent—but his chase contact rate jumped up from 49.9% to 61.8%. Making more contact is generally good, but out of zone contact isn’t likely to lead to good results once bat meets ball. The lack of quality contact is also borne out in his percentile ranks in certain categories.

His contact-based expected slugging dropped from the already poor 31st percentile down to the 8th. xISO? 43rd to 8th. Barrel percentage? 55th to 12th. Hard hit percentage? 61st to 23rd. In 2024, his wOBA on contact dropped from .357 to .342, “good” for 103rd out of 129 qualifiers; his 2023 mark was 100th out of 134. Both aren’t good, but 2024 was worse.

There’s a possibility that, given both approaches led to similarly bad results, Anthony Volpe is just not a good hitter, that this is just who he is at the plate regardless of what he tries. However, he’ll still be only 24 for this coming season so there is still plenty of time for him to turn it around. If he’s going to, he needs to pick an approach and stick to it and refine it. That approach should be the one from 2023. It’s great that he made some more contact in 2024, but not all contact is created equally. Hitting the ball harder and aiming for more power is more impactful and a better use of Volpe’s time and talent, especially if combined with his typical defense and base running. There doesn’t even really need to be that big of an improvement for this to drastically change Volpe’s perception and outlook. So long as he can get to league average, he’s likely a 4+ WAR player. Can he do it? I guess we’ll find out.

You’ve likely heard by now that Bellinger’s lefty swing is a good fit for Yankee Stadium. He’s a pull hitter, and near the top of the league in pulled fly ball rate (87th and 89th percentile in 2023 and 2024, respectively). Lefties who pull the ball in the air tend to fare quite well with Yankee Stadium’s short porch. And yet, Steamer projects a 112 wRC+, which is a hair better than his 2024 results (109 wRC+). That projection feels a tad underwhelming, no? And yes, that projection accounts for the new home ballpark.

Bellinger undoubtedly will sneak in a few extra cheap homers thanks to Yankee Stadium. That, apparently, is not enough to significantly improve his outlook. Why? Two things: contact quality and approach.

Contact Quality

Before the pandemic, Clay’s son crushed the ball. Exit velocity, barrel rate, hard hit rate, you name it: Bellinger was near the top of the league. Then, in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, he started to barrel the bell less frequently. Later, in the playoffs, he dislocated his shoulder and needed offseason surgery. He was a shell of himself in 2021 and 2022, ultimately leading to LA non-tendering him. Blame the shoulder, perhaps.

In 2023, his first season with the Cubs, Bellinger still displayed poor contact quality. Despite that, he posted an excellent 136 wRC+, certainly fueled by some good fortune (.370 wOBA vs. .327 xwOBA). Bellinger remained lucky in 2024 when comparing wOBA to xwOBA (.322 vs. .301), albeit not as much as the year prior.

The Chicago boost seems to be a result of striking out a lot loss often. Going from a 27 percent K-rate in his last two years with LA to a 17 percent clip with the Cubs can make a world of difference, even without improving batted ball quality.

As long as his contact quality remains so, going from Wrigley Field to Yankee Stadium can only help so much. More homers will come from the ballpark fit, but we’re not about to see a spike to, say, 35 long balls without either an increase to pulled fly ball rate (it’s already really high, so probably not), or, an increase in exit velocities, hard contact, and barrels (ehh).

Approach

Perhaps realizing that his power wasn’t going to come back, Belling started making more contact, especially against pitches in the strike zone. He also took more strikes, for what that’s worth. In other words, when he was swinging at something in the zone, he was pretty damn sure he was going to put the ball in play.

Fewer strikeouts is a good thing though, right? Not necessarily, at least in this instance. Simply put, Bellinger does not make very good swing decisions. He’s too passive on pitches in the zone and still chases too often.

The data is pretty clear: Bellinger is below average in terms of overall selectivity (essentially the frequency of “good takes”) and swinging at hittable pitches. From a visual standpoint, you can get a sense of the same below.

Final thoughts

I understand why it’s difficult for a projection system to be bullish on Bellinger, even after moving to a more favorable home field. As long as he makes lackluster contact and is overly passive on heart of the zone pitches, it’s hard to expect any improvement outside of park factors.

I can’t help but wonder if the shoulder injury in 2020 permanently affected Bellinger. We don’t have publicly available bat speed data for years prior to 2024, but what we do know is that he was in the 13th percentile of swing speed this year. I would guess that took much harder swings at the beginning of his career. Now, perhaps he is hesitant to cut loose. And in turn, a longer swing theoretically could lead to a worsened approach because swing decisions need to be made sooner.

Maybe the Yankees’ coaching staff can help Bellinger improve. More aggression vs. pitches in the zone should help, provided that he can maintain strong pulled fly ball rates.

All told, even if all of the underlying inputs remain steady, Bellinger is a good fit. It would be great if he did more damage on contact, but as long as he keeps pulling the ball to right field, he’ll succeed. The Yankees need a lot of above average hitters to solidify the lineup, and Bellinger is just that.

Long ago (foolishly) traded from the Dodgers to Cleveland for a half-season of Casey Blake, Santana is a former catcher turned first baseman who’s had a steady 15 year career. All told, he’s hit .242/.354/.431 with 324 home runs, good for a .342 wOBA and 116 wRC+. Now, he’s a free agent and the Yankees have a need for a first baseman.

The state of first base in the Bronx is bleaker than bleak. Not a singe player manning fist base hit a home run for the Yankees from August 1st to the ill-fated game 5 of the World Series. Almost anything would be in improvement over 2024’s results at first base (and a lot of 2023’s as well). Certainly, Santana fits that bill. How much and if he’s worth it are the questions.

MLB Trade Rumors didn’t list Santana as one of their top 50 free agents, so they don’t have a contract prediction for him. However, ESPN and FanGraphs have the following projections: 1/$13M and 1/$9M. Per Cot’s the Yankees are currently looking at a projected CBT payroll of $260,615,667, well over the $241M threshold. Adding Santana at the median of those two projections—$11M—wouldn’t really do anything but add to the Yankees’ luxury tax bill, which I really don’t care about. What matters more is the length, especially considering Santana’s age; he’ll be 39 just after Opening Day, so a one year deal is really all he should expect to get. Just about any one year deal is worth it.

At the very least, Santana represents a more frugal option at first than fellow free agents Christian Walker and Pete Alonso, projected for 3/$60M and 5/$125 respectively by MLBTR. They are also younger and, frankly, better than Carlos Santana. But, a shorter deal and switch-hitter status might make Santana attractive to the Yankees.

Last season, Santana hit to a 114 wRC+, his best since putting up a 138 wRC+ in 2019 with Cleveland. Between then and now, he’s been closer to a league average hitter, hitting marks of 99, 81, 102, and 100. It’s steady, if unspectacular. Again, though, steady if unspectacular would be a huge upgrade for the Yankees.

Under the hood, Santana’s walk and strikeout rates were on course with his career numbers and so were his ISO and BABIP. His statcast numbers were more or less in line with his career numbers, too. There was quite a jump in wRC+, but that could be explained by league-wide offense declining a bit since Santana’s wOBA went up only three points. Regardless, the shape of his production from 2024 doesn’t raise many red flags, save for his age, which means he could, conceivably, fall off and it wouldn’t be much of a surprise.

Being a switch hitter is a point in favor of Santana, but the issue here is that he’s better from the right side of the plate than the left. Signing a veteran free agent to the short side probably isn’t going to happen, especially with said veteran coming off a good year. In a vacuum, this might not be much of an issue considering the incumbent-by-default first baseman, Ben Rice, is a lefty hitter and having a platoon partner for him could be nice. However, since neither Santana or Rice really play another position, that isn’t too desirable. Signing Santana would most likely mean giving him the starting job and trading or otherwise delaying Ben Rice.

The pluses for Santana are clear: a short term contract for relatively low money; filling a position of need; an upgrade at that position of need; and relatively predictable outcomes at the plate. The minuses are also clear in that he’s old and not a great, or even very good player.

I first started writing this on Tuesday afternoon before the Cody Bellinger trade (great trade!) and my original thought was that I’d be inclined to say the Yankees should sign Carlos Santana, but with a caveat. He can’t be the move offensively. He’s fine as a complementary piece, so long as another bat—an impact bat—was also acquired by some other means. Bellinger has the potential to be an impact bat. If the Yankees decide to deploy him at first, then Santana obviously isn’t a fit. If they decide to play Bellinger in center, then Santana could be a fit if the Yankees don’t want to go big on another hitter.

If you’re reading this post, you likely know whom I’m talking about and will likely agree with what I’m going to argue, regardless of how I phrase it or lay it out. The Yankees should re-sign Gleyber Torres to continue his tenure as their second baseman.

The most obvious reason is that the second base situation is more or less completely up in the air. A simple solution does exist if the Yankees just move Jazz Chisholm back to second base, but that just opens up a hole a third base, which doesn’t solve anything and just shifts the problem over to the other side of the diamond. And now with Caleb Durbin shipped off to Milwaukee along Nestor Cortes in exchange for Devin Williams, the internal options are…Oswald Peraza and Oswaldo Cabrera? The latter is a great guy to have on the end of a roster, but he will get and has been exposed with extended playing time. The Yankees have all but cast Peraza off and I would be legitimately shocked if he were the starting second baseman—or even on the roster—come Opening Day. The free agent situation is Bleak when it comes to second basemen, too, and I’m not even going to try to predict the trade market.

Let’s start in earnest by acknowledging the negatives. There’s clearly something that has soured in the relationship between the Yankees and Torres; you don’t need to be some sort of insider to glean that. Then, there’s the fact that Torres isn’t the greatest defender and second base and his base running leaves more than a little something to be desired. Those are obvious concerns that likely aren’t going away. Despite them, I still think Torres is the best player for the job.

Aside from second base, the Yankee infield is full of question marks. As of now, Ben Rice is the team’s starting first baseman. Anthony Volpe is there at shortstop, of course, and while his defense is superb, he’s yet to truly settle in offensively. And while Jazz is coming off a great debut partial season with the Yankees, he’s often injured. With that many questions marks, something sure and steady in the lineup would be welcome, and that’s definitely Torres.

He had a horrid April (62 wRC+) but bounced back to end up with a 104 wRC+ and after April, he had a more or less typical Gleyber Torres year at the plate (114 wRC+), albeit with reduced power; his .121 ISO this year was his second lowest ever. On the other side of things, he posted a second straight year of a strong walk rate, showing some potential maturity in his offensive game. Additionally, once moved into the leadoff spot where that walk rate and increased patience could be put to use, Gleyber stabilized that important spot in the lineup and helped set up Juan Soto and Aaron Judge for driving in runs. Stability is the key here along with risk mitigation.

The Yankees know what Torres is and what they can expect from him. Just about all the other options, including possible trades, come with a lot more risk than just bringing back the guy who’s prove he’s right for the job over the last seven seasons. While losing Soto made a dent in these plans, the Yankees—as they should and do every year—have championship aspirations. Now is not the time to roll the dice with an up the middle position. Bring Gleyber home.

External acquisitions are going to be necessary in attempt to fill the gaping hole left by Soto. Again, there’s no replacing that production, either from one player or in the aggregate. Still, even with a trade (or two) and free agent signings, the Yankees are going to need players already within the organization to smooth things over.

Below are a few things that would go a long way on the internal side. Not all of them will happen, and hell, maybe none of them happen! That would be very bad, though I’m not that pessimistic. Let’s get to the rundown.

Full year of Jazz Chisholm

I’m pretty excited about having Chisholm in the lineup for an entire season. He hit .273/.325/.500 (132 wRC+) in 46 regular season games post-acquisition, including 11 homers and 18 stolen bases. This jump came after posting a .250/.317/.454 (108 wRC+) for Miami in 1,054 plate appearances since 2022. Sure, we’re talking about a 191 plate appearance sample size in the Bronx, but the Yankees are a better fit to maximize his abilities.

Chisholm’s power-speed combination is tantalizing, and I’m intrigued by the idea of hitting him in front of Aaron Judge next season. Better lineup protection and a ballpark conducive to his swing should result in more of what we saw in the regular season’s second half. I realize his October left a bit to be desired, but he wasn’t alone in that regard, for what it’s worth.

Steamer projects a 114 wRC+, 29 homers, and 35 steals, which is very good, though I would bet the over. A 30/30 season seems likely with good health. Maybe he’s not a true 132 wRC+ guy, but 120-125 seems very attainable. Frankly, the Yankees will need that sort of production to help make up for Soto’s loss.

Anthony Volpe (finally) makes the offensive jump

Honestly, I don’t feel like this is very likely. Volpe now has just under 1,300 big league trips to the plate and an 84 wRC+ to show for it. If DRC+ is your cup of tea, things look even worse: 77 with a standard deviation of 12. In other words, he’s been poor offensively, and perhaps a tad lucky to garner the results tallied thus far. Yikes.

All that said, Volpe was a top prospect for a reason: his bat. In fact, it was supposed to be his calling card, and instead, it’s been his defense that’s kept him playable at short. Now, Volpe wasn’t supposed to be an elite hitter or anything, but I think the Yankees were expecting something like 10 to 15 percent better than league average, mainly driven by power and baserunning. The latter has been there, but the power waned since his rookie year.

Steamer pegs Volpe for a .241/.309/.398 triple-slash, with 18 homers and a 101 wRC+. Sign me up. No, it’s not sexy, but it’s much, much better than before. He needs to do more of what he did in the postseason: swing harder and pull the ball more. That will get him much closer to his rookie year home run total (21) compared to his lackluster 12 in 2024. In addition to power, bring the OBP above .300 (career .288!) like Steamer projects, maintain the baserunning and defense, and then we’ll be cooking.

More of the mid-summer Austin Wells, less of the September Austin Wells

The Yankees’ backstop was incredible from June through July, (154 wRC+ in 218 PA) and then fell off a cliff in September (22 wRC+ in 83 PA) and the postseason (31 wRC+ in 55 PA). He’s certainly not as good as what he did in the summer, but he’s obviously not as bad as he was in the fall.

It’s easy to ascribe his falloff to a catcher’s wear and tear over a long season. It’s something one could reasonably expect from anyone playing a full season behind the dish, though perhaps not as dreadful as Wells was to end the campaign.

It’s likely that Wells’ performance will decline as 2025 goes on. That’s just the reality. What would really help is if he doesn’t take a nosedive like this year. His full season wRC+ was 105, which is terrific for a catcher, and Steamer foresees something similar next year (107). I’d take that again, but ideally with a bit more consistency. The Yankees will need it.

Aaron Judge replicates 2024

Man, this is a lot to ask for. Too much to ask for, really. A 218 wRC+ is bonkers. One of the greatest offensive seasons ever. Can he do it again? I mean, maybe. It was the second time in his career he posted a wRC+ that starts with a 2, the other being his 62 homer 2022 season.

Look, if he meets his 170 wRC+ Steamer projection, that’s an outstanding 2025. How could anyone complain about that? And yet, it would be somehow underwhelming, especially in the absence of Soto. Perhaps I’m being dramatic. It’s just very hard to not only try to make up for the loss of Soto, but also have a lesser (albeit still amazing) version of Judge in the lineup.

Prospect breakouts

Jasson Dominguez, Ben Rice, and Caleb Durbin figure to be on the Major League roster for some, if not all, of 2025. I’m a staunch believer in Rice, I like Dominguez although his propensity to hit grounders worries me, and I’m highly skeptical of Durbin.

As much as I like Rice’s bat, the Yankees do need to get a bona fide first baseman. Thankfully, almost anyone will be an upgrade over what the Yankees ran out there this year (no home runs from a first baseman since July 31!). Whether it’s Christian Walker or someone else, the Yankees are going to be better at the position. Rice might have the most upside of anyone there, though.

Dominguez figures to be a boost to a lineup that will remove Alex Verdugo from everyday playing time. Steamer anticipates a 112 wRC+ and 20 homers for The Martian. That’s even after accounting for his poor batted ball profile.

The Yankees clearly love Durbin, and sheesh, I hope they’re right. It sure sounds like he’s going to be a big league option in 2025, and perhaps from day one. Chances are that Gleyber Torres’ bat will be missed, though.

All that said, even just one breakout of this aforementioned trio would go a long way. Ideally, it’s Dominguez, given that (a) Yankees’ having two outfield holes at the moment and (b) I’d bet on him getting the most run in comparison to Rice and Durbin.

As Randy stated on the emergency podcast in the wake of Soto’s signing late Sunday night, the Yankees ought to shift their focus—in terms of free agent dollars—towards run prevention. I agreed with him then, and evidently, so did the Yankees. I’m writing this immediately after they signed Max Fried to the largest guaranteed contract given to a left handed pitcher in MLB history. This is the direction in which the Yankees should keep moving with regards to their free agent spending.

Undoubtedly, any of the four big remaining free agents on the hitters’ side of things—first basemen Christian Walker and Pete Alonso and outfielders Teoscar Hernández and Anthony Santander—would represent upgrades over what the Yankees currently have at their positions of need. However, all four of them have warts that make me and should make the Yankees wary of committing big money over the long term to each of them. To varying degrees, all four are on the wrong side of 30 and it wouldn’t be an outrageous statement to say that their best years are likely behind them. Three of the four are also right handed and we’ve seen what happens when the Yankees load up on righties, especially when it comes to the playoffs. And while the non-right handed hitter, Santander, is a switch hitter—very desirable!—he’s also very one-dimensional; sure, his power would help replace what was lost in Soto, but the rest of his offensive would fall short and need to be augmented with other acquisitions, such as trades.

The trade market is where the Yankees should shift their focus now when it comes to improving the lineup. Perhaps they can pry Seiya Suzuki or Cody Bellinger from the Cubs. Perhaps they achieve a pipe dream and snag Kyle Tucker from the Astros. Perhaps it’s some other trade I haven’t yet thought about or have no idea can happen. Regardless, there are more palatable options on the trade market—even if they aren’t perfect—than there are on the free agent market…with one exception.

The loss of Soto has rightfully focused us on the gap left in the outfield. However, the Yankee infield is, as currently constructed, untenable. A remedy to that would be re-signing Gleyber Torres. This is, at present, a tall hurdle to be cleared. There are fences to be mended. Whatever metaphor you want to use, use it. However, Torres would likely cost less than one of the free agent options at the other positions of need and offers a bit less potential volatility. It helps that he’s also going to be only 28 on Opening Day, as opposed to over 30. I will readily admit that the upside of the aforementioned players might be higher than that of Torres, but Torres is younger, will cost less in terms of money, and plays a much more premium position.

The loss of Juan Soto is incredible, starving, insatiable, but it is not the end. The Yankees have plenty of options to recover and move forward. Signing Fried is the first step; hopefully, many more will follow.

We first started Views from 314 ft. after River Ave. Blues shut down in 2019. All of us had written for RAB in some shape or form and we weren’t ready to stop blogging with it. Views was a passion project for us, but eventually, a number of factors led to closing our doors in by the end of 2022. That said, the fire is still there. Over the couple of years since we last blogged, at least one of us has sporadically chimed in about how we missed the site. Those feelings came to a head over the last month, so we’ve decided to run it back.

This iteration of the blog will be different than what we did previously. We don’t have time to write game recaps and scour minor league box scores for DoTF. Nor daily analytical or opinion pieces. This time, our plan is to write whenever any one of us feels strongly about a certain topic or is interested in doing a deep dive on a game, player, or trend. We believe that this will allow us to bring you the same quality writing as before, without us feeling bogged down with the need to fill up the blog on a daily basis.