The 2021 MLB draft is scheduled to take place during the All-Star break in July (starting this Sunday!). Between now and then we will be profiling several players who the Yankees may be considering. Predicting who a team will draft is a crapshoot, so hopefully if we profile enough players we’ll profile the one the Yankees take with their first round pick. You can view the full archive here. Today’s profile: Colson Montgomery.
Montgomery is a 6′-4″, 200 lb shortstop out of Southridge High School in Indiana. In addition to playing baseball, he stars on the football and of course, basketball teams. He is currently committed to Indiana University – both as a baseball and basketball recruit, though his athletic future likely lies in baseball. Montgomery is one of the more interesting draft prospects this year because he has rocketed up draft boards this spring though there are questions about his signability and concerns that he is an older high schooler.
Like most high schoolers, finding stats is difficult and ultimately meaningless. High schoolers make their mark in showcases and other events against top competition, and that is how Montgomery has improved his draft stock. He was a standout player at the World Wood Bat Association World Championship last year and recently attended the MLB Draft Combine where Jim Callis called him the best player he saw on that day:
Since Colson jumped up draft boards throughout the spring, the ratings are all over the place. The one thing everyone agrees on, though, is that Montgomery has good power that will play at the next level.
MLB Pipeline ranks him as the 25th best prospect in this year’s class giving him an overall grade of 50 with a 55 for both his power and his arm. All his grades are in the 45-55 range. Here is some of their scouting report:
Montgomery has a good left-handed swing that should allow him to hit for average and power. He’s most effective when he uses the entire field rather than trying to pull pitches out of the park, and his approach got more consistent throughout the summer. His frame resembles Corey Seager’s at the same stage of their careers and he has the strength and bat speed to develop similar pop.
Though he plays shortstop in high school, Montgomery has fringy speed and figures to outgrow the position once he fills out his 6-foot-4 frame. He moves well for his size and should become at least an average defender with a solid arm at the hot corner. If he attends college at Indiana, he’ll be eligible for the 2023 Draft.MLB Pipeline
Baseball America ranks Montgomery 43rd overall – though they recently bumped him up from 121 showing his meteoric rise after leading his high school to a state championship this spring. They give him similar grades to MLB Pipeline, saying “scouts have lauded his athleticism even though he’s not a great runner, but his impressive reactions and average arm strength should give him a shot to handle third base at the next level. He has the frame, bat speed and swing to grow into more than enough power to profile at a corner position, with some scouts thinking he has plus raw power now and could grow into more at his physical peak.”
FanGraphs ranks him 45th saying he needs to move to 3rd base but has great power and Keith Law of The Athletic puts him at 84th overall saying he has a good swing but there are questions about his overall hit tool at the higher level.
Does he make sense?
Montgomery is such an interesting prospect, and I wonder if he is gaining helium because after the top 5 shortstop prospects there is a dearth of infielders in the 15-30 range. Although you don’t draft for need in the MLB draft, a guy like Montgomery may stand out because there aren’t similar players to him in the middle-late first round.
On the whole, Montgomery is intriguing as a high school lefty bat with strong power and a good looking swing. It’s easy to dream about any lefty hitters in Yankee Stadium – especially when Rougned Odor is currently leading the team in LH homeruns.
Montgomery strikes me as a solid and safe prospect as far as high schoolers go but without the star potential you can dream on. We already know he most likely needs to move to 3rd base which limits his upside, although he is athletic and has strong defensive instincts.
On the offensive side, he has already struggled with high-end velocity and that is a concern with the continued increase of high-speed fastballs in the game today.
The other concerns with Montgomery are about age and signability. Let’s start with age. Having already turned 19, he is old for a high school player which means he is closer to fully developed, further limiting the upside you dream on for high schoolers. 2016 draftee Blake Rutherford was a similar age when he was drafted, for example, and he never reached the potential scouts saw in him. Being 19 also means that Montgomery can go to IU and become draft eligible in 2 years instead of 3. That gives him leverage in the draft this year.
Because of that leverage, mocks have Montgomery all over the place because they don’t know if he might sign an underslot deal with a top 10 team or fall because teams don’t think they can sign him. There’s this from Jim Callis:
So anywhere from 10th overall to the 2nd round.
One thing we’ve barely touched on is the MLB Combine which Montgomery attended, where players had a chance to be seen by scouts and teams gained additional data on them. And that is the real mystery with Montgomery because the Yankees are a team that values data highly, and if Montgomery had a standout showing at the Combine (which we have not heard much about), that could increase their interest in him – which is why we’re profiling him.
Having said all that, Montgomery is not the type of draft prospect that excites him as someone who likely has to move to a corner infield position and there are questions about his hit tool. That’s the kind of guy you take in the middle rounds, not the first in my opinion. But, the Yankees and other teams know far more than we do so we’ll find out Sunday where he goes.